China's tin ore imports saw a significant decline in April, no news on the production resumption in the Wa State of Myanmar [SMM Analysis]

In April, domestic tin ore imports were 10,200 mt, down 55.44% MoM and 44.86% YoY. The metal content stood at 4,778 mt, a decrease of 1,419 mt compared to March. The imports in January-April totalled 70,600 mt, down 4.7% YoY. China’s tin imports were 734 tons, down 13.85% MoM and 63.54% YoY. The tin imports in January-April totalled 6,626 mt, up 2.28% YoY.

The significant reduction in tin ore imports was mainly due to a sharp decline from Myanmar and Russia, while imports from other countries remained stable, with some countries even seeing an increase. In April, tin ore imports from Myanmar were 3,900 mt (approximately 1,384 mt in metal content), a significant drop compared to March. The authorities in Wa State, Myanmar, have not yet indicated when local tin ore production will resume, which continuously lowered market expectations for production resumption in the region. It is also reported that the inventory in Wa State is critically low, making it unlikely to increase tin ore exports to China in the future. Tin ore imports from countries other than Myanmar increased, driven by significant growth in imports from Laos and Nigeria, while imports from other countries mostly remained stable, with a slight increase expected in the future.

Since the end of 2023, the profitability window for tin imports has gradually closed. The approval of tin export quotas was delayed due to the Indonesian presidential election at the beginning of 2024. These led to a noticeable decline in China’s tin imports in Q1, with further reductions in April to 734 mt. In April, there were no tin imports from Indonesia to China. However, recently, as the profitability window for tin imports has gradually opened, some imported tin has already been booked by domestic enterprises. In contrast, tin exports showed an increasing trend in April, amounting to 1,922 mt, up 28.91% MoM and 89.92% YoY. The exports in January-April totalled 5,421 mt, up 26.45% YoY. Considering the recent closure of the export window, it is expected that tin exports may decrease in the future.