SMM Analysis: China Polysilicon Imports Surged 51% MoM in August amid Domestic Shortages

SHANGHAI, Sep 23 (SMM) - According to customs data, China's polysilicon imports stood at 9,100 mt in August, up 50% month on month, but down 6% year on year. The imports totalled 56,800 mt from January to August, a year-on-year decrease of 30%.

Polysilicon output had fallen far short of expectations since July has been due to various factors, driving some downstream buyers to turn to imported polysilicon so as to ensure sufficient raw material supply. This, coupled with arrivals of delayed shipments from July, led to a MoM surge in the import volume in August.  

Affected by the sudden maintenance of many polysilicon plants in Xinjiang, domestic polysilicon production continued to decline in July even when new production capacity was continuously put into operation, sending polysilicon prices up. Some downstream buyers began to place additional import orders for delivery in August. Although domestic polysilicon enterprises resumed production one after another in August, the sudden power rationing policy in Sichuan affected the production of leading polysilicon enterprises such as Yongxiang and GCL. Although the production of polysilicon increased in August, it was still 5,000 mt less than expected. At the same time, the production of silicon wafers increased by about 4% in August, and there was still a gap of about 2.5GW in the supply of polysilicon, which led to an increase in the import of polysilicon. 

SMM believes that polysilicon imports may decrease significantly in September. With the weakening impact of negative factors, domestic polysilicon production is expected to increase by about 20% in September, while the increase in silicon wafer production will be only 10%, thus the shortages of polysilicon will be greatly relieved. Current high polysilicon prices and bearish sentiment on polysilicon price outlook will turn buyers cautious about importing.