Zhou point of view update: affected by the shortage of chips, the domestic automobile market "Jinjiu" is no longer, some mainframe factory sales decline significantly in September compared with the same period last year, month-on-month growth rate is limited. In terms of sales structure, the sales of traditional fuel vehicles were in the doldrums in September, while the high growth of new energy vehicles continued unabated. New energy vehicles from new energy car factories and traditional mainframe factories all made remarkable achievements in September, of which BYD sold 70000 new energy vehicles in September, a record high; Tesla Q3 delivered a total of 241000 vehicles, refreshing the best results in a single season; Volkswagen ID. The delivery volume of family, Weilai and Xiaopeng all exceeded 10,000 in September. At present, there is a significant contrast between the market performance of new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles, and the major mainframe factories strive to ensure the delivery of new energy vehicles.
According to the statistics of the Automobile Federation, the domestic car retail volume reached an average of 41000 per day in the first four weeks of September 2021, down 13 per cent from the same period last year and an increase of 3 per cent month-on-month, with a relatively lacklustre performance. At present, the epidemic situation in Malaysia is still grim, so that the domestic car chip supply problem did not improve significantly in September. We expect that the domestic supply of automotive chips will still be under pressure in the fourth quarter, or limit the production capacity of some vehicle factories to a certain extent, but the general trend of continuous improvement in the market boom will remain unchanged from the beginning of September to the end of the year. China's automobile production and sales are expected to grow by 10% year-on-year in 2021. According to the Forecast of the Automobile Federation, the sales of new energy vehicles in China are expected to exceed 3 million in 2021.
Market review: 1) the automotive sector ranks 13th among all industries this week: Shanghai A shares, Shenzhen A shares and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 shares rose and fell by 0.78%, 0.91% and 1.40%, respectively. The automotive sector rose or fell 1.99%, ranking 13th among the 30 industries, on the middle side. 2) Automotive sales and service performance is the best in the sub-sector: from the molecular sector, the rise and fall of auto sales and services, motorcycles and other, auto parts, passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles is 4.05% / 2.09% / 2.04% / 2.03% / 1.08% respectively. 3) the top five stocks: from the perspective of individual stocks, the top five companies in the industry this week are Chuanhuan Technology, Jin Hongshun, Top Group, Longxin General Motors and Xinri shares, up 12.84%, 9.99%, 9.99%, 8.92%, 8.78%, respectively, and the top five declining companies are Junda shares, Fuyao Glass, Lamborg Technology, Fulin Seiko, and Zhejiang Shibao, respectively, and the top five declines are Junda shares, Fuyao Glass, Lamborg Technology, Fulin Seiko and Zhejiang Shibao, respectively. The decreases were-9.99%, 8.28%, 7.35%, 6.93%, 4.29%, respectively.
Industry news: 1) domestic car retail sales fell 13% year-on-year in the four weeks before September, up 3% from August. 2) with the release of the sales list of new car-building forces in September, it has delivered more than 10,000 cars and returned to the first place. 3) Qualcomm reached a final agreement with SSW to buy Venners for $37 a share. 4) four auto companies, including Ford Nissan, announced that they would cut production in October.
Key company developments: 1) Tesla: the 2021 shareholders' meeting will be held at the Super Factory in Austin, Texas, USA.
2) ideal car: the "delivery before reloading" scheme will be opened.
3) Weimar: the D1 round financing of US $300 million was led by Li Ka-shing and the Stanley Ho family.
4) Volvo: 460769 cars recalled worldwide due to deaths from ruptured airbags.
Investment advice: at present, the automobile market as a whole is still in a cyclical upward trend, and the recovery trend of restorative growth continues. After the epidemic, the concentration of the domestic automobile market has increased nearly one step, focusing on recommending the new energy vehicle industry chain and smart vehicle related companies with structural opportunities. Maintain the "recommended" rating of the automotive industry, with emphasis on BYD, Koboda, China Kechuangda, Farah Electronics, Lingdian Electric Control, GAC GROUP and Changan Automobile.
Risk tips: 1. If the overseas epidemic continues to worsen, it will have an impact on China's automobile exports.
two。 Recommend the risk that the company's performance falls short of expectations. 3. The risk that demand growth is not as good as expected.
