SMM9 March 2: today's LME metal market is mixed. As of 09:30 in the morning, Lun Copper is up nearly 0.2%, Lun Aluminum and Lun Zinc are up nearly 0.1%, Lun lead is down nearly 0.2%, Lun Nickel is down nearly 0.1%, and Lunxi is flat. Domestically, most non-ferrous metals are green, international copper is down 1.21%, Shanghai copper is down 1.08%, Shanghai aluminum is down 0.1%, Shanghai lead is faintly red, Shanghai zinc is down nearly 0.6%, Shanghai nickel is down nearly 1.1%, and Shanghai tin is down nearly 0.2%. Black collective red, thread up nearly 0.9%, hot coil up nearly 0.6%, coking coal up nearly 5%, coke up nearly 3.7%, iron ore rose nearly 0.1%, stainless steel fell nearly 1.7%, last period crude oil fell nearly 0.4%, Shanghai gold rose nearly 0.3%, Shanghai silver rose nearly 1%.
In terms of lead, the US ADP employment data is far less than expected, suggesting that the US employment recovery is slow, loose policies in the market economy are expected to boost, and lead prices have rebounded. However, we need to be wary of the domestic August xin manufacturing PMI fell into the contraction range for the first time since May last year, recording 49.2, and the manufacturing boom declined. The cost support of recycled lead plays a role, but the long-short game is still fierce, and the price of lead has temporarily stopped falling and stabilized. The upward momentum for lead prices is expected to be limited. Lun lead is expected to run at 2260-2285 yuan / ton, Shanghai lead is expected to run at 14900-15050 yuan / ton, and the spot is expected to rise 0-50 yuan / ton today.
For copper, US ADP employment rose by just 374000 last night, well below market expectations, while US manufacturing expanded faster than expected in August and manufacturers still face supply chain bottlenecks and labour market constraints. Affected by the poor performance of domestic economic data, investors' concerns about demand increased, and copper continued to fall overnight. In addition, the third batch of auction ended yesterday, with 30,000 tons of dumping reserves superimposed by recent inflows of imported copper to ease the spot tension to a certain extent, focusing on its impact on supply and demand in the short term. Lun Copper is expected to operate at 9300-9400 US dollars / ton today; Shanghai Copper is expected to operate at 68500-69000 yuan / ton; spot water is 160-220 yuan / ton.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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"[SMM Metal Morning reference] Metal closed down nearly across the board | Ferric phosphate market is in short supply | magnesium price doubled within the year.
[summary of SMM Nickel Morning meeting] stainless steel mill price adjustment SS contract fell by more than 700. nickel showed a high pullback.
[summary of SMM Zinc Morning meeting] important data in Asia and Europe are not as good as expected. Zinc market sentiment is low.
[minutes of SMM Copper Morning meeting] damaged market sentiment led to a sharp fall in copper futures to focus on the supply and demand of the spot market after the dumping.
[summary of SMM Aluminium Morning meeting] Macro data fall back and disturb market sentiment. Focus on today's aluminum community data.
![[SMM Análisis Macro] Jackson Hole señala una Fed de línea dura, impulsando las expectativas de subida de tipos en septiembre](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/VCNvX20251217171735.jpeg)
