SMM7 March 2: yesterday, most of the outer disk metal market was green, Lun copper prices came under pressure on Thursday, as weak Chinese manufacturing data and a stronger dollar depressed market sentiment, but fund buying provided some support. Today's LME metal market is mixed. As of 09:30, Lun Copper and Lun Al are up nearly 0.1%, Lun Pb and Lun Zn are down nearly 0.2%, Lunni is down nearly 0.1%, and Lunxi is faintly red. Domestically, non-ferrous metals are green across the board, international copper and Shanghai copper are down nearly 1.2%, Shanghai aluminum is down nearly 0.7%, Shanghai lead is down nearly 0.9%, Shanghai zinc is down nearly 0.8%, and Shanghai Nickel is down nearly 0.7%. Shanghai tin fell nearly 0.2%.
On the copper side, on the macro side, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States recorded 364000 overnight in the week to June 26, the lowest since the week of March 14 last year. The ISM index of manufacturing activity in the United States recorded 60.6 in June, and production continued to pick up despite a month-on-month decline. Solid manufacturing data and a recovering labor market sparked speculation that the Fed would accelerate liquidity tightening, with the dollar index surging again to a nearly three-month high of copper for night delivery.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Copper fell sharply during the sustained high pressure period of the US index at night, focusing on today's non-farm data.
In terms of aluminum, in terms of fundamentals, the current consumption shows signs of weakening to the off-season transition. Yesterday, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly by 2000 tons, and the inventory began to be a little tired. At the same time, it is a foregone conclusion that 50, 000 tons of aluminum ingots were sold by the State Reserve at the beginning of July. The restraining effect of the official caliber on the rise of commodities still exists, which will lead to some domestic bulls temporarily suspending the pace and intensity of entering the market, and the previous hype will cool down. In this market context, it is expected that domestic aluminum prices will remain weak and volatile in the short term.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the main contradiction of macro fundamentals still remains the weak performance of aluminum in the internal and external period.
In terms of lead, overnight, the dollar index fell first and then rose, while lun lead continued to record a negative pullback under pressure. Although the overnight lead correction, but the Shanghai lead decline is limited, the lower 5-day moving average support is OK, and finally recorded a long shadow line Xiaoyang column. During the day, we still need to pay attention to whether Shanghai lead can stop falling and stabilize the 5-day moving average support level. The trend of lun lead destocking remains unchanged, while the US dollar index hit a three-month high, while basic metals fell generally, while the domestic current price spread widened, strengthening market delivery expectations. After the lead price rose, the domestic market wait-and-see mood was strong, and the accumulation expectation loomed. Expected lead price. It is expected that the average price of SMM1# lead today.
[minutes of SMM lead Morning meeting] lead pullback again this week the social inventory of lead ingots is expected to accumulate.
Zinc, overnight Shanghai zinc a negative column, the upper Bollinger Road middle rail to form a pressure, the lower 5-day moving average to provide support. Zinc prices run high overnight, downstream construction continues to weaken, the spot market turnover is light, social inventory is likely to accumulate, the basic face of zinc price support is weak. Pay attention to macro guidance in the short term.
[minutes of SMM Zinc Morning meeting] Zinc fundamentals support weak market waiting for data guidance
In terms of nickel, overnight Shanghai Nickel opened at 134500 yuan / ton, pulled up in a straight line after opening, fell under pressure near the 5-day moving average of 136000 yuan / ton, and the lower 10-day moving average was supported, and then the center of gravity fluctuated narrowly around 134800 yuan / ton. finally, it closed at 134780 yuan / ton, with a turnover of 242000 hands and a position reduction of 7352 to 126000 hands. Overnight, Shanghai Nickel closed at the Shadow Line Xiaoyang Hammer, the Shadow Line reached the 5-day moving average, and the K-column as a whole ran near the 10-day moving average. This week, the overall trend of Shanghai Nickel is weak, but there is no obvious negative factor in the near-term nickel price in the market.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] spot transactions in the nickel market turn slightly weaker and consumption is strong. Under the situation of strong consumption, the downward space of nickel price is limited.
In terms of black series, the thread fell by nearly 0.8%, the hot coil by nearly 1%, coking coal and coke by nearly 2.3%, iron ore by nearly 1.9%, and stainless steel by nearly 2.5%. In terms of iron ore, according to SMM statistics on blast furnace maintenance data, the impact of hot metal on domestic blast furnace maintenance continued to increase this week, but some steel mills reported that some of their steel varieties were still profitable and did not consider active maintenance plans for the time being. However, in the short term, due to the continuous rumors of the anniversary of the founding of the Party and production restrictions, it is difficult to see a significant improvement in the pace of iron ore procurement in steel mills.
"[minutes of SMM Iron and Steel Morning meeting] approaching the party founding celebration, the storm of production restrictions in many places has been spread again, steel mills are mainly wait-and-see, and the enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials has declined.
Crude oil rose nearly 1.7 per cent in the previous period and international oil prices rose more than 2 per cent on Thursday on signs that the OPEC, made up of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries ((OPEC)) and its allies, may increase production at a slower-than-expected pace in the coming months, while rising global fuel demand will lead to tighter supplies.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose 0.8%, Shanghai silver rose nearly 0.2%, and international gold futures rose on Thursday, prompting some traders to buy gold after falling in June because of concerns about the Delta variant virus. but caution triggered by Friday's US non-farm payrolls data and a stronger dollar limited gold's rise.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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