Silver is trying to move higher from its daily low as precious metals generally correct the dominance of the dollar because of the hawkish stance of the Fed, where officials plan to raise interest rates twice to 2023. The data affecting the market overnight is limited, but as the end of the quarter approaches, the inflation theme still exists. This week's focus will be on China's June PMI data and US non-farm payrolls data, but whatever the global data, there are worrying developments in countries that have experienced the novel coronavirus outbreak, which could fall into the hands of dollar bulls.
The Dallas Fed survey was lower than expected, but several sub-components of the data showed objective growth. The Dallas Fed production index rose to 29.4 in June from 15.7 in May, while the general business activity index, which measures broader business conditions, fell to 31.1 in June from 349 in May. The index of new orders rose to 26.7 in June from 20.8 in May, the growth rate of the orders index climbed to 23.4 from 19.5 in the previous month, the capacity utilisation index rose 7 points to 30.6, and the shipping index rose 14:00 to 31.8.
The US will release a non-farm payrolls report, and the market is expected to add 675000 new jobs and the unemployment rate will fall to 5.7 per cent. Not only the non-farm payrolls report will attract attention, but also China's June PMI data, as well as small non-farmers in the United States, the number of first-time jobless claims and OPEC+ meetings are also the focus of the market.
In terms of political and economic news, US Republican Senate leader McConnell (Mitch McConnell) asked US President Joe Biden to decouple the $579 billion infrastructure plan worked together by a bipartisan group from the larger tax and spending bill. McConnell attacked the Democratic Party's infrastructure strategy, accusing House Speaker Pelosi (Nancy Pelosi) and Senate Majority Leader Schumer (Chuck Schumer) of using bipartisan infrastructure bills as threats to remove threats to spending plans. Us Commerce Secretary Raimundo (Gina Raimondo) urged Congress to complete the action of an additional $52 billion in semiconductor funding before the August recess.
What is worth the market's refocus is the renewed wave of the novel coronavirus epidemic. Malaysian Prime Minister Muyudin announced on June 27 that in view of the large number of new confirmed cases, the first phase of the comprehensive epidemic prevention blockade, originally scheduled to end on June 28, would be extended for a second time until the number of new cases was reduced to 4000 per day, but did not specify when it would be extended. In Southeast Asia, in addition to Malaysia, Bangkok and other provinces in Thailand have also announced new restrictions.
Novel coronavirus's variant strain intensified again, and the US Food and Drug Administration ((FDA)) issued a press release before the weekend, pointing out that after discussion by the committee, increasing the risk of developing myocarditis (myocarditis) and pericarditis (inflammation of the heart and periadventitia tissue) was included among the possible side effects of the Pfizer BNT vaccine and Modena vaccine, especially a few days after the second dose of the vaccine.
According to the FDA COVID-19 vaccine data of the United States, the vaccines currently approved by the United States include Pfizer BNT vaccine, Modena vaccine, Johnson vaccine and so on, but do not include the AstraZeneca vaccine. Two-dose vaccines such as Pfizer BNT and Modena vaccine have severe side effects on the second dose, and common mild side effects of the three vaccines include non-severe allergic reactions such as rash, urticaria or facial swelling, pain at the injection site, tiredness, chills, joint pain, fever, diarrhea and nausea.
Rochelle Valensky (Rochelle Walensky), director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, warned that the Delta variant originally found in India would soon become a mainstream pathogen in the United States. A total of 4115 cases of complete vaccination still infected with novel coronavirus, hospitalization or even death were reported in the country, according to a public relations report by the US CDC on the 25th. Andy Slavett (Andy Slavitt), a former senior adviser to the White House anti-epidemic team, said that nearly half of American infectious disease scholars said that there is no doubt that a single dose of Johnson vaccine is less protective than a two-dose vaccine.
On the technical side of silver, FXEmpire analyst David Becker pointed out that silver prices continue to consolidate as well as gold and the dollar, and their scope limits are tail-related. Treasury yields fell after a slightly weaker-than-expected Dallas Fed survey, a preview of US ISM manufacturing data due to be released on Thursday. The long-term technical picture is very bad, and prices need to do a lot of work to break through recent highs.
He continued to analyze that the silver continued to form a bear flag continuation form, which was a pause to refresh the low point. The dollar, by contrast, forms a continuing bull market flag, and the only drawback seems to be the sell-off in Treasury yields. Support is seen near the upward tilt trend line of $25.70, and the secondary upward tilt trend line is around $25.25. The short-term trend tilts downwards as the 10-day moving average recently crossed the 100-day moving average.
Short-term momentum is positive because fast random indicators generate cross-buy signals in the overbought area and go higher, with a reading of 20.6, slightly higher than the oversold trigger level of 20.
![[SMM Análisis Macro] Jackson Hole señala una Fed de línea dura, impulsando las expectativas de subida de tipos en septiembre](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/VCNvX20251217171735.jpeg)
