SMM6 March 17: the outer disk metal market rose and fell mutually yesterday, and the dollar rose sharply yesterday, hitting a high of 91.408 since May 5 this year. On Thursday, June 17, 02Rose 00, the Federal Reserve announced that the benchmark interest rate would remain unchanged at 0% Rue 0.25%, in line with market expectations. The bitmap of the interest rate increase path of Fed officials unexpectedly shows that the Fed will raise interest rates twice by the end of 2023. Today, the whole LME metal market is green. As of 09:30, Lun Copper is down nearly 1.3%, Lun Aluminum is down nearly 1%, Lun lead is down nearly 0.7%, Lun Zinc is down nearly 1%, Lun Nickel is down nearly 1.3%, Lunxi is down nearly 0.6%, International Copper, Shanghai Copper and Shanghai Aluminum are down nearly 0.1%, Shanghai lead is up nearly 0.2%, Shanghai Nickel is down nearly 2.2%, and Shanghai Tin is down nearly 0.6%.
On the copper side, on the macro side, the Fed's high-profile interest rate decision was finally announced in the early hours of this morning, with a bitmap showing that it will raise interest rates twice by the end of 2023 and raise the interest rate on excess reserves by 0.05 percentage points. After the announcement of the decision, the dollar index rose sharply above the 91 mark, while oil and gold prices were affected to some extent. The Fed's interest rate hike hints that the market is worried that the Fed will scale back its stimulus, and copper prices are also expected to be suppressed today, giving up last night's gains.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Federal Reserve interest rate resolution partial hawks expect copper to fall under pressure
Aluminum, yesterday Guanxuan recently sold, the market rumors will be less than expected, so that the afternoon decline in Shanghai aluminum is relatively limited, still need to wait for the official specific plan. On the macro side, after the commodity market closed in the early morning, the Fed spoke about tightening liquidity to attract funds to flow back into the US dollar, and the US index jumped nearly 1%, which may put pressure on the commodity market again today. Fundamentals, the current consumption is OK, it is expected that today's social inventory of aluminum ingots will continue to decline, domestic aluminum prices are expected to maintain a wide range of shocks in the short term.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] throwing and storing rumors that the dust falls to the ground and the fundamentals are strong, aluminum still fluctuates strongly.
In terms of lead, yesterday, Shanghai lead experienced two consecutive overcast in the domestic social inventory background, superimposed the news of the country's regulation and control of commodities, the market wait-and-see mood was strong, long-short trading was cautious, and Shanghai lead went down to test cost support. High inventory of lead ingots continues to be bad for lead prices, but lead concentrate and waste battery prices remain high, long and short factors continue to play the game, and lead prices may be entrenched in the 15000-15500 platform. It is expected that the average price of SMM1# lead today.
[minutes of SMM lead Morning meeting] lead uplink made up overnight. Yesterday's spot market had sufficient supply, discount and micro-expansion.
Zinc, overnight Shanghai zinc recorded a large positive column, the upper 20-day moving average to form a pressure, the lower 40-day moving average to provide support. The overnight outer disk led Shanghai Zinc to strengthen again. However, the announcement of the Reserve Information Officer and the Fed's partial eagle comments are expected to put pressure on zinc prices.
[summary of SMM Zinc Morning meeting] the results of the meeting pressure on the price of non-ferrous zinc may continue to fall.
In terms of black series, threads fell by nearly 1%, hot rolls by nearly 1.1%, coking coal by nearly 1%, coke by nearly 0.3%, iron ore by nearly 0.5%, stainless steel by nearly 1.5%, and iron ore by nearly 1.5%. SMM tracking data show that a total of 91 ships arrived at China's main ports from June to June 12, with an estimated arrival volume of 13.15 million tons, an increase of 1.65 million tons over the previous period and an increase of 780000 tons over the same period last year. During the period, Australia's port departure increased by 1.54 million tons to 17.77 million tons, an increase of 1.14 million tons over the same period last year, while Brazil's port departure decreased by 60, 000 tons to 7.04 million tons, an increase of 400000 tons over the same period last year. Both the arrival in Hong Kong and the departure from Australia have increased month-on-month, but due to the high demand of domestic steel mills, there is no obvious pressure on iron ore in the short term.
[minutes of SMM Steel Morning meeting] frequent mining accidents, raw material prices are strong, black is strong, risk aversion is strong, prices fall widely.
The previous period of crude oil fell nearly 0.7%, while US crude oil futures closed slightly higher on Wednesday after official data showed that US crude oil stocks rose for the fourth consecutive week last week, up more than 7 million barrels. Us crude oil inventories fell sharply last week as refineries raised capacity utilisation to the highest level since January 2020, suggesting continued improvement in demand, according to data released by the US Energy Information Administration ((EIA)) on Wednesday.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell nearly 1.3%, while Shanghai silver fell nearly 1.7%. Comex futures rose on Wednesday, ending three consecutive trading days of decline, followed by the Fed raising inflation expectations for this year and next year, and hinting that it will fall after raising interest rates in 2023. The Fed on Wednesday advanced its forecast for its first post-pandemic rate hike to 2023, citing improved health conditions. The Fed also kept its short-term benchmark interest rate near zero and said it would continue to buy $120 billion of bonds a month to boost economic recovery.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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[SMM Metal Morning reference] the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike path changes and the US dollar rises sharply concerned about the impact of the metal market * the supply of recycled copper is tight.
![[SMM Análisis Macro] Jackson Hole señala una Fed de línea dura, impulsando las expectativas de subida de tipos en septiembre](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/VCNvX20251217171735.jpeg)
