SMM6 March 2: overnight outer disk metal mostly fell slightly, only lun lead rose 0.39%. For Shanghai lead, SMM believes that the multi-short factors such as tightening of smelting raw materials, shortage of mineral supply and light consumption will continue to be in a stalemate in the future, while the accumulation of lead ingots may continue to drag down the upward space of lead prices. In addition, the battery off-season is not over yet in June, but there is expected to be some improvement compared with May, and the market is quietly waiting for the arrival of consumption-driven lead ingots. Most of the LME metal market fell today. As of 09:30, Lun Copper, Lun lead and Lun Zinc rose nearly 0.2%, Lun Nickel rose nearly 0.4%, Lun Aluminum fell nearly 0.2%, and Lunxi was flat. On the domestic front, international copper and Shanghai copper fell nearly 0.1%, Shanghai aluminum fell nearly 0.4%, Shanghai lead fell nearly 0.6%, Shanghai zinc rose nearly 0.6%, Shanghai nickel fell slightly, and Shanghai tin rose nearly 0.2%.
On the copper side, on the macro side, the United States announced yesterday that the final PMI value of the Markit manufacturing sector recorded 62.1 in May. Boosted by strong economic data, the dollar index rebounded sharply at night, dragging down copper prices to some extent. In addition, the continued economic recovery has also raised concerns among investors that the Fed will scale back its support policy faster than expected, with market caution remaining and copper futures overnight.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Copper shot up and fell back in the overnight period and the spot discount narrowed further.
In terms of aluminum, from a fundamental point of view, the recent upgrading of epidemic prevention and control measures in Guangdong has an increased impact on local logistics and downstream, and has an impact on local consumption in the short term. On the whole, SMM believes that fundamental consumption is still in the peak season, it is too early for the traditional off-season to come in July, and the wrong peak of electrolytic aluminum in some areas may shift the time of turning point, so we still need to pay attention to the impact of follow-up macro-control measures on aluminum prices, and Shanghai Aluminum is expected to maintain a wide range of shocks.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Triple factors restrict aluminum prices to maintain range volatility overnight
In terms of lead, the overnight dollar index stabilized, Lun lead short positions to avoid risk, wide shock, running above the moving average group, recorded spindle line, daytime focus on Lun lead 2200 US dollars / ton first line support. Overnight trading of all ferrous metals is generally a small correction, although there is a bullish entry of Shanghai lead overnight, but due to the high pressure of lead ingot accumulation, the rigid demand downstream is limited, the transaction of the bulk market has not improved for the time being, and it is expected that the daytime increase is limited, and the upward force is slightly insufficient. It is expected that the average price of SMM1# lead today.
[minutes of SMM lead Morning meeting] overnight lead weakening spot market discount keeps trading light
Zinc, overnight Shanghai zinc recorded a long shadow line, the lower 5-day moving average to provide support, the upper Bollinger Road on the track to form a pressure. Short-term fundamentals have not changed much for the time being, consumption is gradually emerging in the off-season, and trading in the spot market is also light under high zinc prices, but supply-side disturbances are still expected.
[summary of SMM Zinc Morning meeting] Zinc fundamentals long-short game predicts short-term high concussion.
In terms of nickel, the overnight Shanghai Nickel 2107 contract opened at 133810 yuan / ton yesterday, and opened at 134400 yuan / tonne, followed by a sharp reduction in bulls' pressure, shanghai nickel concussion down 131720 yuan / ton, and late consolidation around the center of gravity of 132500 yuan / ton. it was quoted at 132400 yuan / ton, down 0.35% from the settlement price of the previous trading day. Shanghai Nickel closed negative last night after 6 consecutive days of positive trading, and the shadow line fell to the 5-day moving average. Nickel may still maintain a high concussion pattern during the day. It is expected that this week.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] tight supply pushes up the price of ferronickel, but it is difficult for downstream stainless steel to rise.
In terms of black, thread rose nearly 1.7%, hot coil rose nearly 2.2%, coking coal rose nearly 3.5%, coke rose nearly 1.5%, iron ore rose nearly 2.6%, stainless steel rose nearly 0.3%, Liantie continued to run strongly yesterday, and the port spot market quotation in early trading was 20-30 yuan / ton higher than yesterday. Steel mills continue rigid demand procurement-based, traders offer delivery mentality is more positive, some merchants in the market there is a small amount of bargaining space. Shandong area PB powder turnover 1400 yuan / ton, up 20 yuan / ton compared to yesterday; Tangshan area PB powder transaction 1415 yuan / ton, the overall transaction is general. According to SMM tracking data, a total of 91 ships arrived at China's main ports from May 23 to May 29, and the incoming cargo volume is expected to be.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the news of the relaxation of production restrictions was falsified that the black line of the night market generally closed higher.
The previous period of crude oil rose nearly 1 per cent, international oil prices rose on Tuesday, US and global benchmark crude oil prices reached their highest settlement prices in more than two years, and the market expected an increase in fuel demand in the US during the summer driving season as OPEC agreed to increase production. On Tuesday, OPEC "stressed the need to continue to negotiate and closely monitor market fundamentals" and maintained monthly OPEC meetings until the end of the original agreement in April 2020, which is valid until April 30, 2022.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell nearly 0.4%, while Shanghai silver fell nearly 1%. Comex gold futures fell slightly on Tuesday, giving up earlier gains as strong US manufacturing data and higher bond yields weakened gold's attractiveness, but gold prices remained above the key $1900 an ounce. Us manufacturing activity accelerated in May as stronger order growth highlighted continued robust demand, according to data released by the Institute for supply Management on Tuesday. But shortages of labor and raw materials have pushed the backlog of orders to an all-time high.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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