SMM3 March 29: the outer disk metal was all red on Friday, and Lun Copper rose on Friday as the market worried that the blocking of the Suez Canal would affect the cost of transporting industrial metals, but a new round of epidemic blockade measures and the slow pace of vaccination in the euro zone limited the increase. Analysts point out that cost pressures on transport have strengthened the tone of many commodity markets. The obstruction to the passage of ships on the Suez Canal remains a matter of concern. LME metals were generally green in early trading. By about 09:30, Lunchu was down nearly 0.4%, Lun Aluminum was down nearly 0.8%, Lunxi and Lunni were down nearly 0.2%, Lunxi was up nearly 1.3%, and Lunxi lead was down nearly 0.1%. On the domestic side, the metal market rose across the board, with international copper up nearly 1.6%, Shanghai copper and Shanghai aluminum up nearly 1.3%, Shanghai lead up nearly 0.2%, Shanghai zinc up nearly 1%, and Shanghai nickel up nearly 1.6%. Shanghai tin rose nearly 1.5%.
Copper, on the macro side, announced on Friday that the final consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan rose to its highest level in a year in March. Recently, US President Joe Biden doubled his vaccination target for 100 days in office to 200 million doses. The US government has stepped up its vaccination program, the Federal Reserve will impose dividend restrictions on most Wall Street banks at the end of the second quarter, and market sentiment has turned optimistic.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the copper will focus on the spot transaction at the end of the month.
Aluminum, the short-term Shanghai aluminum continued high wide range concussion. On the whole, the import window still exists, but the market inflow of imported aluminum ingots is not concentrated, and most imports flow directly downstream. In the short term, the spot to the absolute price rise still needs time to digest, the discount pattern may continue. Medium-term continue to pay attention to long short mood changes, it is recommended to increase shipments upstream, downstream procurement on demand-based, careful to chase high. Fundamentals focus on changes in aluminum ingot inventory and their impact on short-term mood swings in the market. Domestic unilateral advice to be cautious to chase more.
[summary of SMM Aluminium Morning meeting] Shanghai Aluminum Co., Ltd. will return to the level of 17500 yuan / ton to go to the warehouse or further raise it.
Lead, last Friday, the LME outer disk basic metals rose, Lun lead encountered bullish positions, the center of gravity shifted upward, close the small positive column, this week focused on whether Lun lead can continue to rise to recover the 5-day moving average. Last Friday night, the trend of domestic non-ferrous metals was generally strong. Shanghai lead first rose and then curbed its rising trend, with the second rising rate, recording a long shadow positive pillar. This week, the domestic lead market may usher in two weak markets of supply and demand, and lead prices may continue to fluctuate at low levels. Pay attention to Shanghai lead during the day.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] lead prices rose slightly in and out of trading last Friday. Lead prices may continue to fluctuate at low levels this week.
Zinc, last Friday, Shanghai zinc recorded a barefoot positive pillar, the upper Bollinger Road on the rail to form a compression, below the 20-day moving average to provide support. From a fundamental point of view, zinc mine shortage continues, domestic weekly TC is reduced again, while due to production restrictions, mine shortage and other factors, smelter maintenance production reduction is significantly increased, downstream consumer enterprises are still willing to purchase at low prices, zinc ingots social inventory continues to decline, as a whole, the fundamentals support is not reduced. It is expected that the main force of Shanghai zinc.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] fundamental support is not reduced to support the upward price of zinc.
In terms of nickel, last week, the fundamentals were generally weak, and the bright spots were limited. The spot market of pure nickel had limited stimulation to the downstream under the condition that the absolute price continued to run sideways, and only the digestion of inventory by rigid demand consumption stagnated. Nickel iron holders conceded shipments, the turnover was more concentrated in the week, the market activity resumed, and the falling price trend did not change. Stainless steel trading last week is better than the previous, steel mills have a strong price mentality, and the spot market volume is not much, so that spot prices are relatively strong, prices will continue to strengthen will need to rely on consumption, although the performance ….
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] Nickel concussion trend continues during the light period of nickel spot market turnover.
Tin, tin mining, according to Yinman Mining official said it will resume tin production from April 1, the current output will maintain a monthly supply of 500-700 metal, but later will increase monthly production. The transportation of tin mines in Myanmar will affect the transportation of goods from time to time due to the acceptance of Chinese personnel from Myanmar. It is estimated that the tin mine will be imported in March.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the supply of tin ingots is blocked. Attention has been paid to consumption and macro impact on tin prices in the near future.
In terms of black, thread and hot coil rose nearly 2.8%, coking coal rose nearly 4.3%, coke rose nearly 4.6%, iron ore rose nearly 1.2%, stainless steel rose nearly 0.6%, thread, last week spot prices fluctuated stronger, the overall price showed a'v 'trend, Friday snail reached a recent high of 4934, the spot national average price also rose to 4760.33 yuan / ton. This is mainly due to the fact that the operating rate of blast furnace and electric furnace has remained high this week, although the operating rate of the billet mill has declined, but this week the demand is good, the downstream procurement is more active, the rigid demand is constantly warming up, the speculative demand is active, and the merchants' shipping conditions are good. The mentality has improved obviously compared with the earlier period.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the bottom support is strong and the black system as a whole is still in the concussion upstream range.
Crude oil rose nearly 3.6 per cent in the last period, and crude oil futures surged on Friday on fears that global crude and refined oil supplies could be disrupted for weeks and workers were trying to resurface a giant container ship blocking the Suez canal. Oil prices rebounded a day after falling sharply on fears that Europe's novel coronavirus blockade would hurt demand.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold and silver fell nearly 0.4%. Comex gold futures rose slightly on Friday, but the weekly line fell for the first time in three weeks, affected by a stronger dollar and higher yields on U.S. Treasuries. Analysts point out that (in the gold market), people buy on bargains and sell on highs, and it is clear that both sides of the coin are working, which is the main concern. The stronger dollar and rising yields put pressure on gold is one side of the coin, while the increase in the number of new cases and the low interest rate policy of the Federal Reserve / FED are the other side. He points out that it is not clear which side will eventually gain the upper hand.
As of 09:40, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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