[SMM tin flash: SHFE tin closed up 0.69%, SHFE backwardation structure remains firm]

The most-traded SHFE tin contract closed up 0.69% today at 379,980 yuan/mt, with an intraday range of 374,580-384,000 yuan/mt and a turnover of 53.1 billion yuan.

According to SMM's latest weekly data released last Friday (October 16), China's tin ingot social inventory fell to 7,770 mt, with a single-week destocking of 980 mt, and warehouses in all three locations pulled back simultaneously. SHFE tin warrants continued to decline to around 3,280 mt, leaving exchange-deliverable supply tight. The domestic spot market remained in a premium state, with spot prices against the most-traded contract reported at a premium of 2,000 yuan/mt in mid-October, significantly wider than before the holiday, and the backwardation structure in near-month contracts provided spot support to futures.

Core logic: Tin ingot inventories in China and overseas are destocking in tandem to historically low ranges, compounded by slow production resumptions in Wa State, Myanmar, and disruptions from Indonesia's export policies, with the tight spot supply supporting a sustained backwardation structure. Going forward, attention should be paid to the possibility of a deepening backwardation structure on the LME.