SMM, October 16:
The most-traded SHFE aluminum 2611 contract closed at 23,270 yuan/mt today, up 165 yuan on the day, a gain of 0.71%. Trading volume was 177,545 lots, and open interest was 210,819 lots, down 18,602 lots on the day, with both bulls and bears continuing to cut positions and exit. Prices remained below the 5-day moving average (23,278), the 10-day moving average (23,505), the 30-day moving average (23,992), and the 60-day moving average (23,822), with all four moving averages still exerting overhead pressure. The contract opened at 23,095, dipped to 22,965 before consolidating higher, and hit an intraday high of 23,360, closing near the day's high at 23,270. Both the intraday low and closing price moved up from the previous trading day, and the full-day average price of 23,187 was below the closing price. The 5-day moving average has crossed below the 10-day moving average, forming a death cross, while the 30-day and 60-day moving averages continue to drift lower, extending the bearish alignment of moving averages. On the MACD (12,26,9), DIF came in at -222.06 and DEA at -115.91, with both lines below the zero axis and DIF below DEA. The MACD histogram stood at -212.30, maintaining a green bar, though the bar narrowed notably from -245.70 the previous day, with DIF and DEA running in negative territory. Trading volume of 177,500 lots was below the 5-day average volume of 184,000 lots but still above the 10-day average of 173,900 lots and the 20-day average of 152,600 lots. Volume eased from the prior day, while prices rebounded from intraday lows and the pace of position-cutting exits continued.
SMM commentary: On the macro front, rising expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes, a strong US dollar, and elevated US Treasury yields continued to weigh on valuations of nonferrous metals. On the fundamental side, production resumptions and new capacity additions ex-China continued to suppress near-term futures sentiment. Aluminum prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note in the short term.
The most-traded alumina 2701 contract settled at 2,631 yuan/mt today, up 40 yuan on the day, a gain of 1.54%. Trading volume was 206,089 lots, and open interest was 286,599 lots, down 21,464 lots on the day, with both bulls and bears cutting positions in tandem. Prices traded below the 5-day moving average (2,634.70), the 10-day moving average (2,663.20), the 30-day moving average (2,704.20), and the 60-day moving average (2,727.70), with all four moving averages exerting overhead pressure. The contract opened at 2,584, dipped to a low of 2,576 before consolidating higher in a one-sided rebound, and hit an intraday high of 2,642, closing near the day's high at 2,631. The full-day average price of 2,613 was below the closing price. The death cross formed by the 5-day moving average crossing below the 10-day moving average persisted, while the 30-day and 60-day moving averages continued to drift lower, further cementing the bearish alignment of moving averages. On the MACD (12,26,9), DIF came in at -24.4522 and DEA at -19.7388, with both lines below the zero axis and DIF below DEA. The MACD histogram stood at -15.4269, maintaining a green bar, though the bar narrowed from -17.8854 the previous day, with DIF and DEA running in negative territory. Trading volume of 206,100 lots was above the 5-day average volume of 164,800 lots, the 10-day average of 158,000 lots, and the 20-day average of 156,500 lots, showing a clear pickup in volume. The futures market displayed a structural pattern of rising volume and prices alongside shrinking open interest.
SMM commentary: The alumina market remained in the doldrums yesterday, but futures and spot performance diverged. In the futures market, the night session opened lower before rebounding, with the most-traded 2701 contract reclaiming the 2,600 yuan/mt level, though prices remained below the major moving averages. The MACD green bars continued to expand, and the overall technical structure stayed weak. In the spot market, prices across major producing regions fell to varying degrees, with the SMM alumina index dropping 6.61 yuan/mt in a single day, deepening spot weakness. Raw material performance was mixed: the imported bauxite index and Guinea CIF prices pulled back slightly, while domestic ore prices in Guizhou rose notably, providing some support to local alumina costs. Overall, the market remains in a weak consolidation phase. Futures showed some buying support at low levels, but downward pressure on spot prices has not been fully released. In the short term, alumina prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to Shanghai Metals Market.]
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