China's major smelter maintenance boosts the most-traded SHFE tin contract, center consolidates on a strong note [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Tin Midday Commentary, September 29, 2026

1. Price Review

Today, SMM #1 tin spot was quoted at 409,100-410,900 yuan/mt, with an average price of 410,000 yuan/mt, up 550 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

The most-traded SHFE tin contract closed at 409,780 yuan/mt in the morning session, up 2,000 yuan/mt, or 0.49%, from the previous trading day's settlement price of 407,780 yuan/mt. Pre-holiday funds were mainly adjusting positions and staying on the sidelines, with limited participation enthusiasm.

On the LME, LME tin 3M rebounded in tandem, closing at $53,735/mt, up $225/mt, or 0.42%, from the previous trading day.

2. Spot Market

The spot market remained sluggish today. Downstream buyers had largely completed restocking when prices were low earlier, and there is currently no suitable price window. With the holiday approaching, market participation declined further, leaving only sporadic rigid demand turnover, and actual transactions were few. Suppliers quoted in line with futures and remained calm, showing little willingness to either hold prices firm or sell before the holiday.

3. Overall Outlook

In the short term, SHFE tin has entered the final stable transition phase before the holiday. Macro conditions offer no new guidance, the immediate sentiment from Middle East geopolitical tensions has been digested, and maintenance at Yunnan Tin has provided some fresh support sentiment on the supply side. Both bulls and bears lack the momentum for sustained attacks. The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to consolidate within the 404,000-411,000 yuan/mt range. Tomorrow is the last trading day before the holiday, and the market is expected to close on a stable note. During the long holiday, overseas markets will trade normally, with key focus on US Treasury yields and the US dollar's direction, changes in October rate hike expectations, and the evolution of the Middle East situation.