SHFE tin SN2610 closed the night session at 408,560 yuan, edging up 0.28%, with the 408,000 yuan/mt level yet to be confirmed [SMM Tin Morning Brief]

SMM Tin Morning Brief | LME tin closed at $53,363 on Sep 28, down 1.81%; LME tin inventory destocked by 25 mt to 4,565 mt; SHFE tin SN2610 night session closed at 408,560 yuan, edging up 0.28%; the 408,000 yuan/mt level awaits confirmation — Tuesday, September 29, 2026

[Futures] LME 3M tin opened at $54,125/mt on Sep 28, hit a high of $54,200 and a low of $53,165, and closed at $53,362.8/mt, down $985.2 or 1.81% from the previous trading day (Sep 25 close: $54,348/mt). LME tin broke below the $54,000 level, with bears remaining in control. The most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract opened at 409,150 yuan/mt in the night session on Sep 28 (closed at 02:30 on Sep 29), dipped to a low of 406,250 yuan/mt before drifting higher, and closed at 408,560 yuan/mt, up 1,150 yuan or 0.28% from the previous settlement of 407,410 yuan/mt. Night session volume was 8,194 lots, with open interest at 5,820 lots, down 942 lots from the daytime session. Short covering dominated, presenting a recovery pattern of "opening lower and rebounding, with shrinking volume and reduced open interest."

[Macro] The US Fed raised rates by 25 bp to 3.75-4.00% at its September FOMC meeting, the third hike this year. Powell struck a hawkish tone, saying inflation stickiness was higher than expected. The US dollar index strengthened to 101.03, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose to around 5.2%. Tightening macro liquidity weighed on nonferrous metals valuations. China-US high-level economic and trade talks reached eight consensuses, marginally improving market sentiment. US-Iran geopolitical tensions pushed oil prices to fluctuate in the short term, with limited spillover impact on tin prices.

[Fundamentals] Supply side, tin ore production resumptions in Wa State, Myanmar continued to advance; Indonesia's refined tin export pace pulled back slightly MoM; domestic smelters' operating rates stayed high. Demand side, AI computing-related solder orders remained resilient, and SMM data showed electronic solder enterprises' operating rates continued to recover. However, downstream restocking willingness before the National Day holiday was moderate, with electronics end-users mainly making just-in-time procurement amid a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Inventory side, LME tin inventory stood at 4,565 mt, destocking by 25 mt from the previous day; SHFE tin futures warrants stood at 4,368 mt, up 7 mt from the previous day; SMM domestic tin ingot social inventory stood at 9,615 mt, up 898 mt WoW. The seasonal rebound in domestic social inventory diverged from LME destocking.

[Summary] Amid a pre-holiday tug-of-war between longs and shorts, SN2610 is expected to move sideways in the 405,000-409,000 yuan/mt range today.