SMM Tin Morning Brief | SHFE Tin Most-Traded Contract Fell 0.85% After Mid-Autumn Festival, Losing the 410,000 Level; Night Session Rebounded Slightly to 408,280 — September 29, 2026 (Tuesday)

[Futures]

• The most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract: On September 28 (the first trading day after the Mid-Autumn Festival), it closed at 408,100 yuan/mt (previous settlement 411,610, down 3,510 / -0.85%), opened at 408,060, hit a high of 411,260 and a low of 405,210, settled at 407,410, with trading volume of 25,257 lots and open interest of 6,762 lots (down 5,119 lots on the day). Open interest in SN2610 has fallen well below that of SN2611 (29,892 lots), and the rollover window for the most-traded contract to SN2611 remains open.
• The most-traded SHFE tin SN2611 contract (the contract with the largest open interest): closed at 408,570 (previous settlement 411,970, -0.83%), with open interest of 29,892 lots (up 2,880 lots on the day) and trading volume of 63,686 lots.
• SHFE tin main continuous contract SNZL: closed at 408,570 in the daytime session, down 0.83%.
• In the night session in the early hours of September 29, SN0 (actual close at 01:00): closed at 408,280 (previous settlement 407,780, +500 / +0.12%), opened at 409,520, hit a high of 410,300 and a low of 406,690, with night session open interest of 30,100 lots and trading volume of 42,800 lots — stabilizing slightly after the sharp decline on the first day after the holiday.
• LME 3M tin: On September 25 (last Friday), closed at $54,550/mt (+1.30%); on September 25, the LME Cash-3M tin backwardation narrowed to $100.78/mt.

Key assessment: On the first day after the holiday, SHFE tin still fell 0.85% despite strength in the LME (+1.30%), mainly pressured by US Treasury yields breaking above 5.2%; however, the slight rebound in the overnight night session suggests buying support below the 408,000 level, with support seen at 405,000 (the daytime session low on September 28) and resistance at 411,000-415,000.

[Inventory in Three Dimensions]

• LME tin inventory: On September 24, it fell to 4,590 mt (destocking of 85 mt), with canceled warrants at 24.28% (a low level for the year); on September 22, it was 4,645 mt (-135 mt), and on September 23, +30 mt.
• SHFE tin futures warrants: On September 24, 4,361 mt (-97 mt); on September 23, 4,458 mt; on September 22, 4,505 mt — overall destocking before the holiday, with a cumulative reduction of 1,916 mt from September 19 to September 24.
• SMM China tin ingot social inventory: 8,717 mt on September 19, +898 mt WoW to 9,615 mt in the week of September 24, up 10.3% WoW, slightly higher than the same period last year, with average downstream stocking before the holiday.

[Macro]

• The US Fed raised rates by 25 bp at the September 16 FOMC with a 12:0 unanimous vote, lifting the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00% (the first hike since July 2023); the dot plot showed 12 of 18 members expected one more hike within the year.
• Latest pricing in federal funds futures: the probability of a 25 bp Fed hike in Octoberhas exceeded 70% (disclosed in Fed Governor Cook's September 28 speech).
• The 10-year US Treasury yield broke above 5.23% intraday on September 28, the highest level since 2007; the 2-year yield was 4.901% on September 24.
• The US dollar index was 100.97 on September 25.
• WTI settled at $94.666/bbl on September 28 (+2.44%); Brent settled at $99.49/bbl on September 28 (+2.10%).
• Fed Governor Cook warned on September 28: although AI may boost productivity, it is unlikely to curb inflation in the short term; data center investment is pushing up energy and construction costs, and electricity and water costs have risen about 5% over the past year.

[Fundamentals]

Mine side (facts):

• Myanmar Wa State: production resumptions have only recovered to 40-50% of pre-ban levels; mine drainage during the rainy season and civilian explosives controls continue to disrupt operations; Myanmar ore imports rebounded to 1,000 mt Sn in August, and SMM expects a monthly average of about 1,300 mt Sn in H2.
• Indonesia Timah: refined tin transactions on JFX+ICDX totaled 3,610 mt in August (+3% MoM, +30% YoY); Indonesia's newly established ICOMEX commodity exchange plans to launch on January 4, 2027, with tin included in the first batch of traded products.
• DRC Alphamin: no new suspensions in September, but the Ebola outbreak in Bundibugyo, Ituri Province, continues.
• Peru Minsur: no new announcements in September.

Smelting side:

• Yunnan 40% tin concentrate TCs held steady at 18,000 yuan/mt; Guangxi/Jiangxi/Hunan 60% TCs at 14,000 yuan/mt; the combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi was 64.94% this week (-0.94 pct WoW).
• In August, refined tin imports stood at 2,746.85 mt (YoY +111.88%).
• Key events: Yunnan Tin's Tin Branch will begin routine maintenance shutdowns from September 30, expected to last no more than 45 days—a phased disruption to China's refined tin supply (already factored into the company's beginning-of-year budget, with no major impact on the full-year production plan).

Demand side:

• SMM August solder operating rate 72.8%; January-August integrated circuit production YoY +20.6%; NEV production YoY +21.9%.
• AI computing power tin demand: approximately 19,300 mt in 2026 → approximately 41,100 mt in 2030 (CAGR +16%).
• Over the same period, smartphone production fell 22.3% and solar cell production fell 12.9%—traditional consumer electronics dragged on demand.
• On September 17, the US issued a preliminary anti-dumping ruling on Chinese tinplate, with a dumping margin of 136.52% (adjusted to 130.17% after offsetting subsidies for the deposit rate).

[Spot market]

T-1 review (9/28): On the first trading day after the Mid-Autumn Festival, pressured by US Treasury yields breaking above 5% across the curve (the 10Y briefly spiked above 5.2%), the most-traded SHFE tin contract consolidated on a subdued note—SN2610 opened lower at 408,060, rebounded slightly to 411,260 during the session (supported by LME +1.30% overnight gains), then pulled back in the afternoon to close at 408,100; the SHFE tin continuous contract SN0 closed at 408,280 in the overnight session at 01:00, stabilizing modestly. Domestic spot trading was sluggish, with downstream players mostly on the sidelines;

T-day morning session estimate (9/29): Overnight trading stabilized modestly at 408,280—high US Treasury yields + AI positives + the Tin Branch's maintenance shutdown (starting 9/30) provided support to the supply side, but pre-holiday risk-off sentiment and the winding down of downstream stockpiling continued to cap upside; the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to consolidate within a range of 407,000-413,000 yuan/mt today, with key levels to watch at 405,000 support and 411,000-415,000 resistance; it is recommended to monitor SMM's latest weekly reading of China's social inventory and the guidance from LME's September 26 closing data for the SHFE market.