Regionally, North America (US + Canada + Mexico) overtook Southeast Asia as the top export region in August with a 23.9% share, mainly driven by a strong +43.0% boost from Mexico. Southeast Asia's share pulled back to 23.7%, while the Middle East and Europe each pulled back 15.4%, serving as the main sources of the overall monthly decline. By country, Mexico jumped to first place with 49,934 mt, up 43.0% MoM, making it the core growth driver in August. Meanwhile, US exports fell sharply from 16,240 mt in July to 7,192 mt (-55.7%).
Mexico's August exports surged 43.0% MoM to take the top spot, but the surge was not driven by demand expansion—it was a concentrated front-running move amid expectations of a new round of tariffs on China. Since 2026, Mexico's tariffs on China have escalated in three stages: starting in January, tariffs of 10%-50% were imposed on approximately 1,463 tariff lines from countries without free trade agreements; on April 24, additional tariffs of 5%-35% were imposed on 185 tariff lines; and on August 18, Bloomberg reported that Mexico was considering further trade restrictions on steel, automobiles, and other products, with the Ministry of Economy confirming consultations with enterprises. This ignited tariff hike expectations—exporters accelerated shipments before tariffs took effect, and Mexican importers front-loaded stockpiling ahead of the tariff increases. August exports thus saw a pulse-like surge, bucking the overall domestic trend of a 3.3% MoM decline, with Mexico's share jumping from 10.9% in July to 16.0%. Taking a longer view, cumulative exports to Mexico in January-August totaled 307,304 mt, down 4.3% YoY, underperforming total exports (+19.2%) by 23 percentage points. The coexistence of a cumulative decline and a single-month surge is precisely the result of two opposing forces: tariff suppression in H1 and front-running on new expectations in August.
Looking ahead to H2, exports to the US will pull back to low levels, and the widening SHFE/LME price ratio will continue to suppress new orders. Exports are expected to decline further from September, with Q4 monthly average exports falling within the 260,000-300,000 mt range. Based on the solid January-August base of 2.427 million mt, and assuming a neutral estimate for September-December (monthly average of 270,000 mt, approximately 1.08 million mt over four months), full-year export volume is still expected to reach 3.45-3.6 million mt, exceeding the 3.07 million mt in 2025 and likely surpassing the 3.43 million mt level in 2024. By market, Mexico's front-running effect is likely to persist until around the fourth round of US-Mexico talks in Washington (late September), with September exports to Mexico expected to remain at a high level of 45,000-50,000 mt. Entering Q4, if the US-Mexico framework agreement is finalized at year-end and Mexico imposes high tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum under Section 232, exports to Mexico will come under significant pressure, with the monthly center potentially pulling back to 30,000-35,000 mt. In the medium and long term, Mexico's nearshoring demand base remains intact, but the channel of "transshipping to the US via Mexico" is being progressively blocked by melt-and-pour rules. Combined with rising tariff walls, China's aluminum plate/sheet and strip share in Mexico is likely to trend lower, with exports increasingly dependent on genuine demand from local processing in Mexico.
