Tin Midday Commentary, September 23, 2026
1. Price Review
Today, SMM #1 tin spot was quoted at 410,800-412,700 yuan/mt, with an average price of 411,750 yuan/mt, edging down 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.
The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened higher in the night session and its price center climbed in the morning, reaching an intraday high of 414,800 yuan/mt before retreating after a rapid rise as gains narrowed. It closed the morning at 412,280 yuan/mt, up 830 yuan/mt or 0.2% from the previous trading day's settlement price of 411,450 yuan/mt.
On the LME, LME tin 3M pulled back slightly and was last at $54,110/mt, down $360/mt or 0.66% from the previous trading day.
2. Spot Market
The spot market was sluggish today. With the price center holding above 410,000 yuan, downstream users mainly worked through earlier inventory. The concentrated stockpiling at last week's low of 390,000 yuan and recent restocking have left raw material inventories relatively ample, so there is limited willingness to chase prices higher. Suppliers continued to hold prices firm and available cargoes remained tight, but actual transactions at high prices were only moderate, leaving the market in a state of "firm quotes, thin deals."
3. Outlook
The main macro sentiment shift today came from the Middle East. US-Iran diplomatic engagement has clearly warmed: Trump, while maintaining a tough stance in his UN General Assembly speech, revealed that his team held a "very good" three-hour meeting with Iranian officials and that a peace deal is expected after the midterm elections. Iran said that if the US lifts military pressure and port blockades, it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, and that its negotiating delegation has been fully authorized. As a result, overnight WTI fell 2.73% to $89.85/bbl, breaking below the $90 mark, while Brent fell 1.59% to $94.71. The pullback in oil prices eased earlier inflation and rate-hike pressures, macro risk appetite clearly recovered, SHFE tin strengthened in the night session, and the futures price center climbed further in the morning.
However, futures showed signs of fatigue near 415,000 yuan and retreated after a rapid rise for two reasons. First, after the rate hike landed, the market was already in a recovery phase; sentiment was active but lacked fresh bullish catalysts to sustain it. Second, while the market may be pricing in the logic of "Middle East easing → oil price pullback → inflation easing → less need for rate hikes," the Middle East situation has been volatile for a long time, and the market remains uncertain about the durability of the easing, so the reaction was relatively restrained.
In the short term, SHFE tin is expected to continue consolidating at highs. Middle East easing expectations and the oil price pullback provide support for market sentiment, but the sustainability of this positive factor remains to be verified, and the spot market has shifted into a digestion phase as prices moved higher, leaving limited drivers in either direction. The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to consolidate within 409,000-416,000 yuan/mt. The key variable is whether the Middle East situation shows a clear trend toward improvement. If diplomatic engagement makes substantive progress and oil prices continue to pull back, the market's pricing of "inflation easing and rate hikes on hold" will strengthen further, and the price center may continue to climb.
![SHFE tin holds the 410,000 level, inventory drops on both fronts + semiconductor surge continues to confirm tight balance [SMM Tin Morning News]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/BBJUa20251217171751.jpg)
![The most-traded SHFE tin contract closed at 413,080 in the night session, climbing above 413,000. With the September rate hike finalized, ore-side hard constraints support consolidation at highs. [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/nyMyJ20251217171751.jpg)
