SHFE tin holds the 410,000 level, inventory drops on both fronts + semiconductor surge continues to confirm tight balance [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief | SHFE Tin Holds Above the 410,000 Yuan Mark, Inventory Declines on Both Fronts + Semiconductor Surge Continue to Confirm Tight Balance — Wednesday, September 23, 2026

[Futures] The most-traded SHFE tin SN2611 contract closed at 412,870 yuan/mt in the overnight session, up 1,420 (+0.35%) from the previous settlement of 411,450; it opened at 412,950 yuan/mt during the day, hit a high of 414,090 yuan/mt and a low of 412,530 yuan/mt; overnight trading volume was 20,000 lots, and open interest was 23,800 lots, up 1,589 lots from the previous day (mainly driven by bullish positioning). The most-traded SHFE tin contract closed at 410,400 yuan/mt in the daytime session (+0.47%), with open interest at 21,910 lots, down 3,331 lots from the previous day (mainly driven by bearish unwinding), and daytime trading volume was 74,300 lots. LME tin closed at $54,255/mt on September 22 (+0.18%), with LME Cash-3M tin at a discount of $199.59/mt.

[Macro] The US Fed raised rates by 25bp to 3.75-4.00% at its September meeting (12-0 unanimous vote, the first hike since July 2023); the 10Y US Treasury yield was 4.957% (-3bp), the US dollar index was 100.29, and WTI was $93.17/bbl (-3.03%); the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 5.29% overnight on September 21, its best single-day performance since August, with semiconductor + AI sentiment spilling over into electronic metals; Chinese and US economic and trade teams maintained close communication on tariff reduction issues.

[Fundamentals] Ore supply: Production resumptions in Myanmar's Wa State have only recovered to 40-50% of pre-ban levels, with the rainy season and civilian explosives restrictions constraining capacity. Smelting: August refined tin production was 15,888 mt (-1.63% MoM, +6.20% YoY); August refined tin imports were 2,747 mt (+111.88% YoY), of which 2,171 mt came from Indonesia as tolling material. Demand: The August SMM solder operating rate was 72.8%, flat; integrated circuits +20.6% and new energy vehicles +21.9% remained strong, with AI tin demand rising from 19,300 mt in 2026 to 41,100 mt in 2030 (CAGR 16%); smartphones -22.3% and solar -12.9% remained weak.

[Summary] Support at the 410,000 yuan/mt level has been confirmed, with semiconductor sentiment + inventory destocking + tight ore supply constraints resonating together. SHFE tin is expected to consolidate on a strong note within the 410,000-415,000 yuan/mt range today, with attention on the 415,000 yuan/mt resistance level and the 410,000 yuan/mt support level.