After bearish factors digested and macro guidance temporarily absent, the center of the most-traded SHFE tin contract returns to 410,000 [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Published: Sep 22, 2026 11:40 (GMT+8)

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[SMM Tin Midday Review: After Bearish Factors Were Digested and Macro Guidance Was Temporarily Absent, the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract's Center Returned to 410,000]

Tin Midday Commentary, September 22, 2026

1. Price Review

Today, SMM #1 tin spot quotes were 410,900-413,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 411,950 yuan/mt, up 2,600 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

The most-traded SHFE tin contract dipped to 408,900 yuan/mt during today's session before rebounding, closing the morning at 411,900 yuan/mt, up 3,400 yuan/mt or 0.83%. Open interest in the most-traded contract and the November contract declined during the day, with the rebound accompanied by continued capital outflows, suggesting momentum for chasing gains remains cautious.

On the LME, LME tin 3M was basically flat, currently quoted at $54,140/mt, down slightly by $15/mt from the previous trading day, a decline of 0.03%.

2. Spot Market

The spot market today was largely in a wait-and-see mode. Last week, when prices were around 390,000 yuan, downstream pre-holiday stockpiling demand was released rapidly and intensively, and raw material inventories were substantially replenished. This week, after the price center rebounded, downstream willingness to chase higher prices is limited, and the procurement pace has slowed. Suppliers generally report tight spot availability, with mainstream brands quoted at premiums of 800-1,500 yuan/mt over futures, but after the price center moved higher, actual transaction completion has been mediocre.

3. Comprehensive Outlook

In the short term, SHFE tin is in a phase where bearish factors have been fully digested and sentiment is undergoing marginal repair. The 400,000 yuan level has been validated by both fundamentals and market sentiment, forming an important bottom. The pre-digestion of rate hike sentiment has weakened the marginal intensity of macro pressure, and any marginal easing in macro news going forward could further bolster market sentiment and push the price center higher. The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to consolidate at highs within the 409,000-416,000 yuan/mt range in the short term.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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