SMM Tin Morning Brief | Most-traded SHFE tin closed at 413,080 in night session, topping 413,000. September rate hike landed; ore-side hard constraints support consolidation at highs — September 23, 2026 (Wednesday)
[Futures] Overnight SHFE: The most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract closed at 413,080 yuan/mt in the night session on 9/22, up 2,030 yuan/mt (+0.49%) from the daytime session settlement of 411,050 on 9/22; the night session ranged 412,230-413,960, with volume of 29,800 lots and open interest of 20,200 lots (down 1,694 on the day). The daytime session on 9/22 closed at 410,400 yuan/mt, up 1,900 yuan/mt (+0.46%) from the 9/21 close of 408,500; the intraday range was 412,230-413,960, with volume of 32,000 lots. Overnight LME: Three-month LME tin closed at $53,944/mt on 9/21 (+239/+0.44%). LME tin inventory stood at 4,780 mt (-75), with the ratio of cancelled warrants at 22.6% and 0-3 month spot discounts at -$210.54/mt.
[Spot] SMM #1 tin was quoted at 412,000-414,000 yuan/mt on 9/22, with a central parity rate of 413,000 yuan/mt (+3,500 from 9/21). Tin prices rose. Downstream stockpiling at lows increased slightly ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, but buying interest remained moderate, with transactions dominated by small orders for immediate needs.
[Macro]
- The US Fed voted 12-0 at the 9/16 FOMC meeting to raise rates by 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, the first hike since July 2023.
- September dot plot: 12 officials expect one more rate hike this year, 4 expect two, and 2 expect no change.
- CME FedWatch: Probability of holding rates in October at 43.5%, probability of a 25bp hike at 56.5% (9/22).
- 10-year US Treasury yield at 4.957% (-3bp on 9/21); 30-year at 5.294% (-8bp).
- WTI at $93.17/bbl (-3.03% on 9/21); Brent at $96.77/bbl (-2.54%); US dollar index at 100.29.
- Richmond Fed President Barkin spoke in the early hours of 9/23: Last week's rate hike was driven by inflation risks outweighing maximum employment risks; whether further hikes are needed remains unclear.
[Fundamentals] Ore side: Myanmar Wa State production resumptions have only recovered to 40-50% of pre-ban levels. Deep drainage during the rainy season and tight supply of civilian explosives continue to constrain production release. Tin concentrate imports from Myanmar in August were approximately 1,000 mt Sn, with H2 monthly average expected at 1,300 mt Sn. Indonesia's JFX+ICDX tin ingot trading volume in August was 3,610 mt (+3% MoM/+30% YoY). The newly established ICOMEX commodity exchange plans to launch on January 4, 2027, with tin included among the first batch of traded products. DRC Alphamin had no new shutdowns in September; operational risks persist in Ebola Bundibugyo strain outbreak areas in Ituri Province. Peru's Minsur had no new announcements.
Smelting: China's refined tin production in August was 15,888 mt (-1.63% MoM/+6.20% YoY); Yunnan 40% tin concentrate TCs were 18,000 yuan/mt (flat), while Guangxi/Jiangxi/Hunan 60% tin concentrate TCs were 14,000 yuan/mt; operating rates in the two provinces were 64.94% (-0.94pp). Refined tin imports in August were 2,746.85 mt (+111.88% YoY), of which 2,170.81 mt came from Indonesia tolling; net imports were 544 mt.
Demand: SMM solder operating rate in August was 72.8% (flat), with production around 6,900 mt. Integrated circuit output rose 20.6% YoY, and NEV output rose 21.9% (January-August); tin demand for AI computing power is expected to grow from 19,300 mt in 2026 to 41,100 mt in 2030 (16% CAGR). Smartphones fell 22.3%, and solar cells fell 12.9% (January-August).
[Spot Market] September 22 review: The most-traded SHFE tin contract closed the daytime session at 410,400 yuan/mt, holding above the 410,000 mark, and extended gains in the night session to 413,080 yuan/mt; spot premiums were 500-1,500 yuan/mt, downstream buying interest at high prices was moderate, mainly need-based stockpiling, and inventories in both locations fell further to 9,150 mt, a relatively low level for the year, with hard constraints on the ore side and pre-holiday stockpiling providing two-way support. September 23 morning session estimate: The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to drift higher within the 412,000-415,000 range; resistance above at 415,000/support below at 410,000-412,000; watch LME inventory changes and Richmond Fed President Barkin's speech for guidance. Key judgment: After the rate hike is delivered, macro pressure is released, and hard constraints on the ore side provide a floor; SHFE tin is expected to continue consolidating at highs today, with attention on whether the 415,000 mark can be broken through on volume.
![Middle East easing expectations heat up, the most-traded SHFE tin contract center probes higher [SMM Tin Midday Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/TYKtM20251217171753.jpg)
