SMM Tin Morning Brief | SHFE tin closed at 398,430 on Sep 16, up 0.99%, stopping its decline and rebounding; bulls reduced positions as the 410,000 level awaits confirmation
[Futures] The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened at 395,380 yuan/mt on Sep 16, dipped to an intraday low of 389,420 yuan/mt before drifting higher, touched a high of 400,370 yuan/mt, and closed at 398,430 yuan/mt, up 3,910 yuan/mt (+0.99%) from the previous settlement of 394,520. Trading volume was 119,800 lots, and open interest was 32,500 lots, down 2,700 lots from 35,200 lots on Mar 15. The combination of rising prices and falling open interest suggests profit-taking by bulls dominated, and the intraday rebound was constrained by insufficient follow-through from the spot market. LME tin closed at $52,085/mt on Sep 15, up 0.49% (the Sep 16 close has not yet been updated).
[Macro] The US dollar index closed at 99.355 on Sep 15, and Brent crude oil closed at $108.48/barrel on Sep 15. In the early hours of Sep 17, there were no speeches by US Fed officials or reports of escalating geopolitical conflicts. External risk appetite remained stable, and the market awaited US August retail sales and September PMI data later this week.
[Fundamentals] The SHFE/LME price ratio of 1.06 (calculated as SHFE tin 398,430 yuan/mt ÷ LME tin $52,085/mt × exchange rate 7.2) is near the recent average, leaving limited room for import profit margins. The rainy season in Wa State, Myanmar, is drawing to a close. In July, China imported 4,569 mt in physical content of tin concentrates from Myanmar (equivalent to 1,077 mt of metal), down 27% MoM. Indonesia's Timah exported 4,564 mt to China in August, recovering to the expected range. AI computing solder demand is projected to grow at a 16% CAGR from 2026 to 2030, and tin consumption from servers in China is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 29%. Medium and long-term demand growth continues to materialize, but spot market trading was sluggish on Sep 16, with pre-holiday stockpiling demand yet to be clearly released.
[Summary] The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to move sideways in the 395,000-405,000 yuan/mt range today, with support at 390,000 yuan/mt and resistance at the 400,000 yuan/mt level. LME tin is expected to trade in the $52,000-53,000/mt range.
[Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to Shanghai Metals Market.]
![SHFE tin rose 1.24% overnight to close at 400,240, with the 400,000 level becoming new support [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/nBLhE20251217171750.jpg)
