Macro headwinds marginally blunt, coupled with active market trading, the most-traded SHFE tin contract rebounds after dipping [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Tin Midday Commentary, September 16, 2026

1. Price Review

Today, SMM #1 tin spot was quoted at yuan 394,900-397,700/mt, with an average price of yuan 396,300/mt, up yuan 1,450/mt from the previous trading day.

The most-traded SHFE tin contract fell sharply in early trading today, briefly breaking below the yuan 390,000 mark to a low of yuan 389,420/mt, before its center quickly rebounded. It closed the morning at yuan 396,670/mt, up yuan 2,150/mt or 0.54% from the previous trading day's settlement price.

On the LME, LME tin 3M was last quoted at $52,400/mt, up 0.6%.

2. Spot Market

Trading was active in the spot market today, with orders concentrated in the early-session low-price window. As futures quickly rebounded thereafter, market transactions slowed. Most suppliers reported this morning that spot inventory was nearly depleted, with some cargoes already pre-sold, leaving available spot supply tight. Premiums in the market were raised sharply.

3. Comprehensive Outlook

Market focus today is on the US Fed's interest rate decision, to be released tonight (2:00 a.m. Beijing time on the 17th). CME FedWatch shows the probability of a 25 bp hike to 3.75%-4.00% has reached 94.5% (versus just 33.1% a month ago). The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.041% intraday (the highest since July 2007), and the 20-year yield hit a record high since issuance resumed. A JPMorgan survey shows US Treasury investors' short positions surged by 10 percentage points in a single week to 19%, with tightening sentiment at the peak of this cycle.

In the short term, although tightening expectations are at elevated levels, some sentiment has already been priced in. Futures are beginning to show desensitization to bearish factors, with a wait-and-see sentiment prevailing. Meanwhile, active trading has narrowed the downside room. The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to consolidate in the yuan 391,000-403,000/mt range in the short term. If the press conference is notably hawkish and the market shifts to pricing in the start of a tightening cycle, caution is warranted for renewed pressure on the lower end of the range.