SHFE tin rose 1.24% overnight to close at 400,240, with the 400,000 level becoming new support [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes | SHFE tin rose 1.24% overnight to close at 400,240, with the 400,000 level becoming new support

[Futures] LME 3M tin on 9/16 was reported at $52,400/mt (+0.6%), after closing at $52,085 on 9/15. The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened at 395,380 yuan/mt on 9/16 (daytime session T-1), dipped to 389,420 intraday before rebounding quickly, reached a high of 400,370, and closed at 398,430 yuan/mt, up 3,910 or 0.99% (prior settlement 394,520); open interest fell from 35,200 lots to 32,500 lots (-2,700 lots), with active intraday trading but some speculative positions being withdrawn. The most-traded SHFE tin contract closed at 400,240 yuan/mt in the early morning night session on 9/17, up 4,920 or 1.24%, with open interest at 31,845 lots, as capital flows warmed up before and after the rate hike landed.

[Inventory in Three Dimensions] LME tin inventory rose 100 mt to 4,990 mt on 9/16 (down 230 mt to 4,890 mt on 9/15), with the ratio of cancelled warrants at around 27% recently. China SMM tin ingot social inventory stood at 9,425 mt in the week of 9/11, with a weekly inventory buildup of 1,533 mt, up 19.4%, with Shanghai up 801 mt to 4,142 mt and Suzhou up 386 mt to 1,170 mt as the two main contributors; SHFE tin inventory was 7,652 mt on 9/11 (+1,153).

[Macro] The US Fed announced its rate decision at 2:00 a.m. on 9/17, hiking rates by 25bp to the 3.75%-4.00% range, the first rate hike in more than three years (CME FedWatch showed a 94.5% probability on 9/16). The 10-year US Treasury yield hit 5.041% intraday, the highest since July 2007; the 20-year US Treasury yield hit a new high since its reintroduction. Bank of America's prime rate took effect at 7.00% starting 9/17. Rate hike expectations had been largely priced in earlier, and market sentiment shifted to "positive news realized" after the hike landed.

[Fundamentals] Ore side: The rainy season in Myanmar is gradually ending, and tin concentrate exports are recovering marginally, but water levels and grades constrain significant growth within the year; July tin concentrate imports from Myanmar were 4,569 mt in physical content (equivalent to 1,077 mt metal content, down 27% MoM), with H2 monthly average to China at around 1,300 mt Sn. Indonesia's Timah exported 4,564 mt in August (up 52% MoM), with the pace of RKAB quota release continuing; the Ebola Bundibugyo strain in DRC had 6,186 confirmed cases and 3,007 deaths as of 9/1 (fatality rate 48.6%), with regional operational risks persisting. Smelting side: In the week of 9/11, the combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi was around 68.14% (the highest since June), with Yunnan's operating rate rising above 90%; July refined tin imports were 2,269 mt (up 84.75% MoM), mainly due to the concentrated release of previously backlogged Indonesian export permits; TCs remained at 18,000 yuan/mt for Yunnan 40% grade and 14,000 yuan/mt for Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan 60% grade. Demand side: July SMM solder enterprise operating rate was 72.8% (down 6pp MoM), stable at 72.8% from July to August, with just-in-time procurement dominating during the electronics off-season; September peak-season realization is not yet evident, and purchase willingness on dips has cooled. AI computing tin demand is expected at 19,300 mt in 2026E and 41,100 mt in 2030E (CAGR 16%), with China server tin consumption growing at an average annual rate of 29% from 2026 to 2030, keeping the long-term demand narrative intact.

[Spot Market] T-1 (9/16) review: The morning session dipped to the 390,000 level before rebounding quickly, closing at 396,670 yuan/mt at midday; spot transactions were concentrated in the early-session low-price window, with most suppliers reporting tight spot inventory and some cargoes pre-sold, driving premiums sharply higher, but transactions turned thin after the rapid rebound, and market wait-and-see sentiment rose. T-day (9/17) morning outlook: With the rate hike landed, macro pressure is marginally released, and SHFE tin closed at 400,240 in the overnight session, holding above the 400,000 level; watch whether the 390,000-405,000 range can hold; fundamentally, tight ore supply and social inventory rebound offset each other, and demand peak season still needs verification, with the day expected to drift higher and attention on resistance at the 410,000 level in the night session.

Key judgment: After the rate hike landed, SHFE tin stabilized at the 400,000 level, with rate hike expectations already largely priced in; the social inventory rebound continues to loosen the low-inventory logic, but the AI/computing long-term narrative and ore-side constraints still provide medium-term support, with the day expected to move sideways in the 390,000-405,000 range, watching resistance at 410,000 and support at 390,000 in the night session.