SHFE tin stabilized at 394,010, down slightly by 0.13%, LME tin inventory decreased by 230 mt to 4,890 [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM Tin Morning Comment | SHFE Tin Stabilizes at 394,010, Down Slightly 0.13%; LME Tin Inventory Falls 230 mt to 4,890; September Rate Hike Probability at 92.4%, US Treasury Yields Break 5%

[Futures]

• LME 3M Tin: Closed at $51,830/mt on Sep 15, down 2.87% from Sep 12 (a single-day drop of $1,485), hitting an intraday low of $51,700, the lowest since early July
• Most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 (daytime session on Sep 15): Opened at 395,000 / High 397,470 / Low 391,410 / Closed at 392,890 yuan/mt (-2.67%, -10,790) / Settlement 394,520; open interest 35,200 lots (-859), trading volume 105,900 lots, turnover 41.77 billion yuan — the most-traded contract broke below the 400,000 mark, hitting the lowest since early July
• SHFE tin overnight session (as of 01:00 this morning): Opened at 395,380 / High 397,450 / Low 392,250 / Closed at 394,430 (-0.02%, -90); open interest 34,800 lots (-379), trading volume 54,100 lots — the decline stabilized, moving sideways around 394,000

[Spot]

• SMM #1 tin averaged 402,600 yuan/mt (previous disclosure, down 8,000 WoW), quotation range 401,000-404,200 yuan/mt
• Spot premiums on Sep 15 (against the October contract, per SMM morning comment):Minor brands at premiums of 500-1,000 / Yunzi-brand at premiums of 1,000-1,400 / Yunnan Tin at premiums of 1,400-1,800 yuan/mt
• Spot side: The most-traded SHFE tin contract tested the 390,000 yuan level, with active trading in the spot market (midstream and downstream made just-in-time procurement on dips)

[Inventory in Three Dimensions]

• LME tin inventory: 4,890 mt (announced on Sep 15, down 230 mt / -4.5%); ratio of cancelled warrants at 27.4% (data as of Sep 14), LME Cash-3M spot discount of $277
• SHFE tin inventory: 5,749 mt (Sep 15)
• China tin ingot social inventory: 9,425 mt (weekly data as of Sep 11, up 1,533 mt / +19.4%) — driven by small arrivals of imported tin and smelter sell-offs at high prices mid-week

[Macro]

• US Fed Sep 15-16 FOMC: A 25bp rate hike is a foregone conclusion, CME FedWatch probability at 92.4%, with rates rising to 3.75-4.00% (the first hike since July 2023); Goldman Sachs, CICC, and AVIC Securities all expect a hike tonight
• US Treasury yields: 10-year at 5.045% (highest since July 2007), 30-year at 5.402% (highest since June 2007); the 2-year rose in tandem
• Oil prices: WTI rose 2.39% to $102.44/bbl on Sep 14, Brent rose 2.59% to $107.32/bbl (intraday high above $108) — Saudi energy facilities attacked again, Strait of Hormuz shipping constrained, and oil tanker daily charter rates surpassed $1 million/day for the first time
• US August CPI: Up 3.4% YoY (in line with expectations), core CPI up 0.3% MoM (above expectations), rekindling inflation concerns and supporting rate hike expectations

[Fundamentals]

Ore side

• Myanmar Wa State: Logistics constrained at the end of the rainy season; China imported 4,569 mt in physical content of tin concentrates from Myanmar in July (equivalent to 1,077 mt of tin metal, down 27% MoM), with H2 monthly average shipments to China at 1,300 mt of tin metal per month
• Indonesia Timah: LME announced on Sep 15 the lifting of the suspension on the Kundur brand; tin ingot exports in July-August revised up to 4,795 / 4,510 mt (exceeding 4,500 mt for two consecutive months), with the share of tin ingot shipments to India rising to 12%
• DRC (Alphamin): Ebola Bundibugyo strain reported 6,186 confirmed cases and 3,007 deaths as of Sep 1 (fatality rate 48.6%), with regional operational risks persisting but no impact yet on production and transportation at key mining areas

Smelting side

• TCs: Yunnan 40% tin concentrates at 18,000 yuan/mt, Guangxi / Jiangxi / Hunan 60% at 14,000 yuan/mt
• Operating rate of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi at 65.88% (down 2.26 percentage points WoW); routine maintenance at leading domestic smelting capacity in autumn may partially affect procurement and sales pace

Demand side

• Orders for AI servers / advanced packaging / semiconductor-grade tin materials remain stable; tin demand for AI computing power to grow from 19,300 mt in 2026 to 41,100 mt in 2030 (CAGR 16%)
• Traditional solder / tinplate / tin chemicals peak-season performance was mediocre, with downstream mainly making just-in-time procurement
• On Sep 15, US chip stocks plunged across the board, and AI giants called for slowing the pace of AI development, with the negative sentiment dragging tin prices below key levels

[Spot Market]

• Sep 15 review: SHFE tin plunged 2.67% in the daytime session and lost the 400,000 mark, while the overnight session edged down and stabilized around the 394,000 level; in the spot market, minor brands were at premiums of 500-1,000 against the October contract, with active trading but midstream and downstream making just-in-time procurement on dips
• Sep 16 early session forecast: Tin futures are expected to continue moving sideways in the 390,000-400,000 range, with support at 390,000 and resistance at 400,000; low inventory support and macro headwinds are expected to offset each other
• Key judgment: Ahead of the Fed meeting, liquidity tightening and geopolitical risk premiums are exerting pressure in the same direction. The 25bp rate hike in September has largely been priced in by the market. What will truly determine the direction of tin prices is the wording of the FOMC rate decision, the dot plot, and the guidance on the future path from the chair's press conference in the early hours of this morning Beijing time — if the dot plot leans hawkish and hints at a second hike, tin prices may test the lower bound of 390,000; if the wording is mild and in line with expectations, the market may see a short-term exhaustion of bearish factors and recover toward the upper bound of 400,000