SMM Tin Morning Brief | LME tin inventory at 4,890 mt, down 230 mt; September FOMC rate hike nearly a done deal, watch for the decision
[Futures] On September 15 daytime session, the most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract closed at 394,730 yuan/mt (previous settlement 403,680, down 8,950/-2.22%), opening at 395,000, hitting a high of 397,470 and a low of 392,800, with trading volume of 63,400 lots and open interest of 35,600 lots (down 485 lots on the day; the most-traded contract saw bulls cut 316 lots and bears cut 25 lots, with slightly heavier bull liquidation). In the night session early on September 16, it edged down 0.02% to close at 394,430, trading in a range of 392,250-397,450, with open interest of 34,800 lots (down 379 lots on the day), as both bulls and bears reduced positions amid a wait-and-see stance. LME tin closed at $52,085/mt on September 15 (up 0.49%), with LME tin inventory at 4,890 mt (down 230 mt on the day) and the ratio of cancelled warrants rising to 25.87%.
[Macro] US August CPI rose 3.4% YoY, in line with expectations, but the 0.4% MoM increase was the largest in four months; core CPI rose 0.3% MoM, exceeding expectations. The probability of a 25bp rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting rose to around 90%. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.986% intraday, approaching 5%, and the 20-year Treasury auction awarded at a record-high yield of 5.420%, while the US dollar index remained strong. Tensions in Iran pushed Brent crude oil above $109/bbl (up 2.69%), as macro liquidity tightening and geopolitical risks combined to weigh on metals valuations.
[Fundamentals] Supply side: Indonesia's tin exports in July and August were 4,795 mt and 4,510 mt respectively, exceeding 4,500 mt for two consecutive months; Timah's exchange trading volume in August was 3,610 mt (up 30% YoY), with ample import replenishment. The rainy season in Wa State has ended, but drainage issues and ore grade problems at mining areas are constraining production resumptions. In August, China's refined tin production was 15,888 mt (up 6.20% YoY), and the operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi rebounded to 68.14% (the highest since June). Yunnan 40% tin concentrate TCs held steady at 18,000 yuan/mt. SHFE tin inventory stood at 5,749 mt (down 281 mt on the day), while domestic tin ingot social inventory saw a buildup of 1,533 mt last week to 9,425 mt (up about 19.4%), breaking the low-inventory narrative. Demand side: August solder operating rate was flat at 72.8%, with traditional solder underperforming in peak season, while high-end solder demand for AI servers and advanced packaging showed resilience but limited growth.
[Summary] The most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract is expected to consolidate in the 390,000-400,000 yuan/mt range today, with strong wait-and-see sentiment ahead of the rate decision. Watch for support at the 390,000 level and the FOMC rate decision statement.
[Data source disclaimer: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this as a replacement for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM】
![SHFE tin stabilized at 394,010, down slightly by 0.13%, LME tin inventory decreased by 230 mt to 4,890 [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/iLVGs20251217171753.jpg)
