[Futures] On September 3, the most-traded SHFE tin SN2610 contract opened at 413,840 and closed at 416,090 (+270/+0.07%) in the daytime session, with a high of 417,950, a low of 412,530, and a settlement of 415,300. Open interest stood at 38,853 lots (down 3,075 on the day), with the most-traded contract seeing 101,812 lots traded and turnover of 42.283 billion yuan. The night session extended the rebound, closing at 418,460 (+3,160/+0.76%) at 01:00 on September 4, with a range of 416,880-419,960 and 54,600 lots traded. LME 3M tin closed at $54,125/mt on September 2 and $54,952/mt on September 3 (+720/+1.33%), with 0-3 spot discounts at $384/mt.
[Inventory] LME tin inventory stood at 5,445 mt on September 3 (down 55 on the day), with 1,135 mt canceled and the canceled warrant ratio rising to 20.84%. SHFE tin warrants totaled 4,665 mt on September 3 (down 267, -5.4% on the day), with Shanghai at 1,615 (-168) and Guangdong at 3,032 (-99), showing synchronized destocking across both locations.
[Macro] US Fed Governor Waller struck a dovish tone on the evening of September 3, indicating willingness to support holding rates steady in September if August inflation data supports easing pressures. CME FedWatch showed the probability of a 25bp rate hike in September pulling back from 60.4% to 50.4%, with the 10-year US Treasury yield retreating from 4.780% to 4.761% and the 2-year yield falling to 4.322%. The three major US stock indices closed up 1.1%-1.4% in the night session. WTI held above $91/barrel, with Brent at $95.63/barrel. The August nonfarm payrolls due on Friday, September 5, is the next decisive variable.
[Fundamentals] Ore supply: Myanmar's Wa State remains in the tail end of the rainy season, with production resumptions falling short of expectations. In July, China imported 4,569 mt in physical content of tin concentrates from Myanmar (equivalent to 1,077 mt of metal, -27% MoM). Indonesia's Timah exported 2,483 mt to China in August, with the full-month total of 4,564 mt recovering to the expected range. Cumulative JFX and ICDX tin ingot volumes from January to August reached 25,830 mt (-18.17% YoY). The Ebola Bundibugyo strain in the DRC has a fatality rate of 48.6%, with regional operational risks persisting. Yinduo Mining's beneficiation plant resumed production on September 3, while the resumption of mining area operations remains pending. Smelting: Yunnan 40% tin concentrate TCs stood at 17,900 yuan/mt (flat WoW), and Guangxi 60% concentrates at 14,000 yuan/mt. July domestic refined tin production was 15,290 mt (-4.08% YoY), with the combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi at 64.38%. July net exports of refined tin were 524 mt, with import profits at +2,310.83 yuan/mt. Demand: July solder enterprise operating rate was 72.8% (relatively low compared with the same period in the past five years). Traditional consumer electronics saw just-in-time procurement, while high-end solder related to AI servers and advanced packaging maintained resilience. SMM expects global tin demand for AI computing power to grow from 19,300 mt to 41,100 mt during 2026-2030 (CAGR 16%).
[Spot Market] September 3 review: SHFE tin edged up 0.07% in the daytime session to close at 416,090, then rose further in the night session to close at 418,460. The full-day pattern was "daytime stabilization - night rally." Downstream inquiries on price dips increased, but acceptance at high prices was limited. On September 3, SHFE tin warrants fell by 267 mt, while the LME canceled warrant ratio rose to 20.84%, signaling destocking in both domestic and overseas markets. September 4 early session estimate: The night session has already climbed above 418,000. Watch whether 418,000 can hold effectively. If it holds, resistance above is seen at 420,000-422,000. If it fails, support below is at 415,000-412,530. On the macro front, focus on the US August nonfarm payrolls on September 5 for further pricing of September rate hike expectations.
![SHFE tin closed at 412,910 in the night session, down 0.70%, as bears added positions. The 410,000 level is being contested by bulls and bears [SMM Tin Morning News]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/reOma20251217171751.jpg)
