SMM, September 3:
In the metals market:
As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper gained 0.48%, and SHFE aluminum rose 1.43%. SHFE lead fell 0.19%. SHFE zinc rose 0.36%. SHFE tin gained 0.39%. SHFE nickel rose 2.01%.
In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 1.22%, and the most-traded alumina contract gained 0.26%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 0.68%. The most-traded silicon metal contract gained 0.4%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 0.2%.
Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore gained 0.14%, rebar fell 0.7%, and hot-rolled coil dropped 0.77%. Stainless steel rose 0.65%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 3.41%, and the most-traded coke contract dropped 3.84%.
In overseas base metals, as of 11:43, LME metals mostly rose. LME zinc gained 0.43%. LME copper rose 0.22%, and LME aluminum gained 0.3%. LME lead fell 0.13%. LME tin rose 0.97%. LME nickel gained 0.44%.
In precious metals, as of 11:43, COMEX gold rose 1.41%, and COMEX silver gained 1.55%. In domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 2.12%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract gained 2.4%.
In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 2.54%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract gained 4.52%.
As of the midday close, the most-traded European shipping route containerized freight index futures contract fell 6.7% to 1,837.5 points.
As of 11:43 on September 3, some futures midday quotes:
Spot and fundamentals
Silver:ADP data came in below expectations and a stronger yen pressured the US dollar, allowing silver prices to rebound slightly. However, with expectations for a September rate hike still looming, the rebound was limited. Spot market trading was subdued, with prices holding at a slight discount. Attention now turns to Friday's nonfarm payrolls for guidance...
Macro front
In China:
[NDRC convenes coordination meeting on major projects under the "Six Networks" initiative]On September 2, 2026, Yue Xiuhu, member of the CPC Leadership Group and deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), chaired a coordination meeting on major projects under the "Six Networks" initiative to refine the government-bank-enterprise collaboration mechanism and project database development. The meeting focused on advancing the construction of the "Six Networks" project database by lead departments and local governments, strengthening information sharing with financial institutions to achieve efficient "investment-loan linkage"; accelerating the selection of attractive engineering projects for public promotion to encourage participation by diverse entities; better leveraging the catalytic role of government investment; and simultaneously improving pricing and fee formation mechanisms and supporting policies to drive business model innovation and build synergy for advancing the "Six Networks" initiative. (Jin10 Data APP)
[RatingDog China Services PMI rises to 51.4 in August, expansion momentum edges up]The RatingDog China Services PMI came in at 51.4 in August, up 1.0 percentage point from July, marking the 44th consecutive month in expansion territory, with the pace of expansion edging up. Demand-side growth improved. Total new business rose for the 44th consecutive month, with growth accelerating from July. New export business remained in expansion for the fourth consecutive month, with growth slowing further from the year-to-date high in June. Business expectations for the next 12 months rebounded from the recent low in July. Cost pressure edged up, and employment continued to expand. Input price inflation edged up from the six-month low in July, remaining mild overall. Selling prices were raised slightly for the third consecutive month. Employment rose for the fourth consecutive month, the longest streak of growth since 2023. Overall, the pace of services expansion in August edged up from July, with faster growth in business activity and new orders, continued employment expansion, and improved business confidence. (RatingDog)(Jin10 Data APP)
[Wan Gang, Honorary Chairman of the China Association for Science and Technology: Recommends accelerating R&D and industrialisation of all-solid-state battery technology]On September 3, the 2026 World Power Battery Conference will be held in Yibin, Sichuan. Regarding the current and future development of the power battery industry, Wan Gang, Honorary Chairman of the China Association for Science and Technology, made the following recommendations: First, strengthen R&D and innovation in frontier-leading technologies, accelerate R&D and industrialisation of all-solid-state battery technology, encourage exploration of new-type sodium-ion battery and other technology routes, and further improve the safety and environmental adaptability of power batteries. Second, continue to tap new opportunities for value growth and promote the building of a new ecosystem that deeply integrates NEVs and renewable energy. Third, consolidate sustainable development capabilities, use digital technologies to effectively improve supervision across the entire lifecycle of power battery production, sales, use, and recycling, and enhance the efficiency of battery materials reuse. Fourth, elevate international exchange and cooperation, leverage platforms such as the World Power Battery Conference, promote joint development of basic rules and mutual recognition of key data for global low-carbon trade, strengthen coordination of power battery industry development outside China, and guide enterprises to plan the pace and approach of their overseas development in a scientific manner. (Jin10 Data APP)
[Shanghai: By 2030, basically establish a modernised megacity housing and urban-rural development management system]The Shanghai Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and Management issued the notice on printing and distributing the Shanghai Housing and Urban-Rural Development and Management 15th Five-Year Plan. By 2030, a modernised megacity housing and urban-rural development management system will be basically established, with deeper integrated urban-rural development, more robust urban renewal institutions and mechanisms, significantly improved livability and housing standards, continuously enhanced urban governance efficiency, accelerated transformation of the construction industry, and a solidly reinforced foundation for resilience and safety. Focusing on five major areas—technology industry, ecological environment, livelihood security, infrastructure, and urban-rural development—we will fully leverage the strategic support and radiating, driving role of major projects. We will strengthen overall coordination and breakthrough efforts for major projects at the municipal and district levels and key projects with investment exceeding 500 million yuan, and consolidate the foundation for securing resource elements such as land, rivers and lakes, green space, forest land, and construction waste. We will intensify efforts to resolve issues spanning multiple industries, fields, and levels. We will create a new paradigm for the construction management of major projects and step up the promotion and application of new technologies and processes. (Jin10 Data APP)
[PBOC reverse repo operations resulted in a net withdrawal of 103 billion yuan on the day]The PBOC did not conduct reverse repo operations today. With 103 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing today, a net withdrawal of 103 billion yuan was achieved on the day. (Jin10 Data APP)
US dollar:
As of 11:43, the US dollar index fell 0.14% to 99.42.
According to CME "FedWatch": The probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged in September is 37.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 62.3%. The probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged through October is 27.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 55.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50bp hike is 17.2%. (Jin10 Data APP)
US private-sector employment growth slowed further in August, marking the weakest single-month performance so far this year and reigniting market concerns about cooling in the US labour market. According to data released by the ADP Research Institute on Wednesday, private-sector payrolls rose by 37,000 in August, below the previous month's 46,000 (July's figure was revised up from an initial 44,000 to 46,000), the smallest monthly increase since January this year. (Wall Street See)
The US Fed's Beige Book showed that US economic activity grew at a mild pace since early July. Of the 12 Fed districts, 10 reported slight to modest growth, while 2 reported no change. Consumer spending edged up, but consumers became more price-sensitive, and high-end consumption remained strong; auto sales were subdued due to weak confidence, high oil prices, and rising financing costs. Manufacturing activity rebounded in most districts, with some reporting strong demand for defense- and data center-related orders. Labour market growth slowed, with overall employment only edging up. Labour demand was solid in sectors such as manufacturing and construction, but declined in retail and hospitality. On prices, most districts reported mild price increases, and cost pressures from energy, transportation, raw materials, and tariffs persisted. Businesses expect the overall economic outlook to remain positive, but they remain attentive to uncertainties arising from energy prices, policies, and international conflicts. (Jin10 Data App)
A CITIC Securities research report stated that the US July CPI rose 0.1% MoM, with core CPI up 0.2% MoM, both in line with market expectations. The slight MoM increase in US July CPI was mainly driven by a rebound in core goods prices and a pickup in core services growth, while energy prices fell for a second consecutive month, partially offsetting upward inflation pressure. US July PPI YoY growth continued to pull back, and overall upside risks to US inflation expectations remain manageable. The outlook for the US-Iran conflict remains highly uncertain, and upside risks to crude oil prices and US inflation pressure persist, but overall US inflation pressure is expected to remain manageable, and the view that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged this September is maintained.
In other currencies:
With the Bank of Japan's policy decision imminent, yen traders are on high alert for possible further intervention by Japanese authorities in the FX market. As the BOJ decision will be followed by a three-day holiday, market participants believe authorities may take action during the holiday period when liquidity is lower. The yen extended Wednesday's gains on Thursday, highlighting market nervousness ahead of the BOJ's September 18 policy meeting, where the market widely expects the central bank to raise rates. In April this year, Japanese authorities waited until the long Golden Week holiday to conduct their first intervention since 2024. Now, investors speculate that Japan may adopt a similar strategy during the Silver Week holiday that begins shortly after the BOJ policy meeting concludes. Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Samara Hammoud said: "Silver Week could further increase uncertainty around yen movements, mainly because market liquidity may decline further during the holiday. Over time, the dollar-yen exchange rate may retest the highs that previously triggered intervention. If this happens quickly, especially again around the BOJ meeting, the risk of further intervention will rise significantly." (Jin10 Data App)
South Korea's foreign exchange reserves increased by $14.33 billion in August, the largest monthly increase on record, mainly driven by a sharp rise in commercial banks' foreign currency deposits at the Bank of Korea. The Bank of Korea said in a statement on Thursday that as of end-August, the country's FX reserves rose to $442.28 billion from $427.95 billion at end-July. The central bank said the August increase in FX reserves was mainly due to a surge in foreign currency deposits at financial institutions, while the weaker US dollar against other currencies also contributed to investment gains and valuation gains on foreign currency-denominated overseas assets. Improved foreign exchange reserves strengthened South Korea’s financial buffer capacity, after the won weakened several times in H1, drawing market attention to South Korea’s external financing conditions. Earlier this year, the won at one point fell to its lowest level since 2009. South Korean authorities repeatedly warned against excessive exchange-rate fluctuations while seeking to curb capital outflows caused by South Korean retail investors’ heavy investment in assets outside China. (Jin10 Data APP)
The Singapore dollar showed a stronger inverse move against the US dollar than any other Asian currency. Analysts said that if the “US dollar depreciation trade” continued to heat up, this feature could make the Singapore dollar a currency in Asia with greater upside potential. Galvin Xie, Emerging Asia strategist at Société Générale, said: “A weaker US dollar will undoubtedly benefit the Singapore dollar.” He expected the Singapore dollar to benefit from its tight inverse correlation with the US dollar, limited central-bank intervention, a booming AI export sector, and strong volatility-adjusted returns during periods of US dollar weakness. (Jin10 Data APP)
On the data front:
Switzerland’s August CPI m/m, France’s final August services PMI, Germany’s final August services PMI, the eurozone’s final August services PMI, the UK’s final August services PMI, the eurozone’s July PPI m/m, the US August Challenger job cuts, US initial jobless claims for the week ended August 29, the US July trade balance, the US final August S&P Global services PMI, and the US August ISM non-manufacturing PMI were due to be released today. In addition, attention was needed on: an interview with US Fed Governor Waller.
On crude oil:
As of 11:43, oil prices in both markets edged down, with WTI down 0.04 and Brent down 0.21. The market weighed the outlook for crude oil supply.
On September 2 local time, Venezuela’s acting president Rodriguez met with US Department of Energy (DOE) Secretary Wright. After the meeting, the two countries formally signed multiple cooperation agreements. It was reported that the Venezuelan government signed agreements with several enterprises, including Chevron, on oil expansion projects. Earlier, US President Trump posted on social media announcing that the US had reached an agreement with Venezuela to obtain “majority control” over more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuela’s proven oil reserves. Venezuela’s acting president Delcy Rodriguez said the oil cooperation agreement reached with the US would last 25 years, aiming to raise crude oil production to 1.5 million barrels per day while safeguarding Venezuela’s autonomy over its natural resources.
According to CNN, citing two US officials familiar with the operation, the US military escorted 40 merchant ships carrying 18 million barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday Eastern Time, setting a wartime high. Earlier, the US and Iran engaged in a new round of confrontation on Tuesday. (Jin10 Data APP)
Spot market overview:
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