8.24 SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment
Futures: Overnight, the most-traded AD2610 contract opened at 23,385 yuan/mt, hit a high of 23,430 yuan/mt, a low of 23,185 yuan/mt, and closed at 23,245 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt, or -0.64%. Trading volume was 4,851 lots, down 502 lots MoM, with volume pulling back during the decline compared with the previous bearish candlestick; open interest was 18,916 lots, down 543 lots MoM, continuing to decline significantly.
Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on August 21, the theoretical spot-futures price spread of SMM ADC12 spot price against the closing price of the most-traded cast aluminum alloy contract (AD2610) at 10:15 a.m. was a premium of 870 yuan/mt.
Warrant Daily Report: SHFE data showed that on August 21, total registered cast aluminum alloy warrants amounted to 19,967 mt, down 31 mt from the previous trading day. Among them, total registered volume in Shanghai was 1,625 mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; in Guangdong, 1,029 mt, up 89 mt; in Jiangsu, 5,855 mt, unchanged; in Zhejiang, 8,289 mt, down 60 mt; in Chongqing, 2,344 mt, down 60 mt; in Sichuan, 785 mt, unchanged.
Aluminum Scrap: Last Friday, the closing price was 23,680 yuan/mt, up 80 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The domestic aluminum scrap market price was overall stable with a wait-and-see sentiment. This week, the aluminum scrap market is expected to continue its pattern of moving sideways in a narrow range, suppressed by demand and supported by costs. Currently in the tail end of the traditional off-season, end-user orders from downstream are unlikely to see a substantial breakout. Scrap utilization enterprises continue their purchasing-as-needed strategy, with cautious purchasing sentiment, and the pre-season effect is not yet significant; enterprises need to wait and see for subsequent order inflows. The main operating range for shredded aluminum tense scrap (priced based on aluminum content) is expected to fluctuate between 19,900-20,700 yuan/mt.
Silicon Metal: On August 21, SMM east China non-oxygen blown #553 was raised by 50 yuan/mt; oxygen-blown #553 was raised by 50 yuan/mt; #521 was raised by 50 yuan/mt; #441 was raised by 50 yuan/mt; #421 was raised by 50 yuan/mt; #421 for silicone use was raised by 50 yuan/mt; #3303 was stable. Prices for certain grades in south China, Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, northwest China, Xinjiang, and Shanghai were raised, while prices in Guangdong, Sichuan, and other regions were stable.
Markets Outside China: On the import side, overseas ADC12 offers remained stable at $3,050-3,190/mt. The immediate import loss narrowed slightly to around 900 yuan/mt, and the import window remained closed, limiting overseas supply replenishment.
Summary: Last Friday, ADC12 market quotes were generally stable, with a few enterprises showing a slight intention to raise prices, but overall adjustment was limited, and market sentiment remained wait-and-see. In the short term, ADC12 prices are expected to move sideways. On the cost side, tight supply of compliant raw materials and high raw material costs, together with the closed import window and low industry operating rates, provide some support, limiting downside room. However, on the demand side, weak end-use consumption and insufficient downstream purchase willingness remain the main pressing factors, with enterprise finished product and social inventory accumulation further capping upward momentum. As long as cost support does not weaken significantly and demand lacks a real improvement, short-term prices are unlikely to form a trend of upward movement. If the high-temperature off-season gradually ends and end-user orders and procurement demand show a substantial improvement, ADC12 prices could regain upward momentum.
[Data Source Declaration: Except for public information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.]
