Friday, August 21, 2026
Futures: Overnight LME copper opened at $13,992/mt, touched a low of $13,910/mt at the start, then the center of copper prices rose and tested $14,071/mt, eventually closing at $14,041.5/mt, down 0.07%, with trading volume of 17,000 lots and open interest of 262,000 lots, an increase of 604 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bearish position addition. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 106,660 yuan/mt, touched a low of 106,550 yuan/mt at the start, then the center of copper prices rose to a high of 107,440 yuan/mt, eventually moving sideways to close at 107,190 yuan/mt, up 0.01%, with trading volume of 29,000 lots and open interest of 158,000 lots, a decrease of 4,400 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bullish position reduction.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:
(1) Data from the Customs Statistics Online Inquiry Platform showed that China's July 2026 copper ore and concentrate imports totaled 2,378,520.35 mt, up 1.87% MoM and down 6.95% YoY. China's July copper ore and concentrate imports from Chile were 654,429.73 mt, up 26.63% MoM and down 13.42% YoY. China's July copper ore and concentrate imports from Peru were 553,134.11 mt, down 13.32% MoM and down 6.78% YoY. On the export side, China's July 2026 copper ore and concentrate exports amounted to 1.24 mt, down 5.42% MoM and down 99.70% YoY. China's July copper ore and concentrate exports to the UK were 0.52 mt, down 1.88% MoM and up 1,696.55% YoY. China's July copper ore and concentrate exports to the Netherlands were 0.31 mt, down 6.13% MoM.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On August 20, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the SHFE copper 2609 contract were quoted at a premium of 260–440 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 350 yuan/mt, down 45 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2609 contract initially shot up but quickly pulled back, then ran below the average line for an extended period, with bears dominating for a time; in the final session, prices continued to rebound and regained the average line, closing at the day's high of 107,370 yuan/mt. The inter-month backwardation spread ranged between 310–350 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2609 contract for the current month was between a loss of 760 yuan/mt and a loss of 700 yuan/mt. The sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 3.36, up 0.03 MoM, and the purchase sentiment was 3.53, up 0.15 MoM; historical data can be queried from the database. Looking ahead to today, the purchase sentiment in the Shanghai region continued to rebound, but market transactions remained mainly inventory turnover among traders. Although some downstream buyers made just-in-time procurement, actual demand growth was relatively limited, and end-use consumption had not yet shown significant improvement. Standard-quality copper quotes were continuously lowered from around a premium of 350 yuan/mt in early morning to about 260 yuan/mt, after which transactions increased, reflecting that the market still had low acceptance of high-premium cargoes, and suppliers were still willing to lower quotes to facilitate transactions. On the other hand, high-quality copper and non-registered copper available cargoes were relatively scarce, and the inter-month backwardation spread remained at 310–350 yuan/mt, providing some support to certain brand quotes. In summary, against the backdrop of traders' purchases providing some demand support, but limited downstream procurement growth and strong supplier willingness to sell, Shanghai spot copper quotes against the 2609 contract are expected to remain at a premium today, with the overall center likely to continue to edge lower.
(2) Guangdong: On August 20, spot prices for #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract in Guangdong reported premiums of 110-180 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 145 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper reported premiums of 30-50 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 40 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 107,235 yuan/mt, up 360 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 107,130 yuan/mt, up 365 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The procurement sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.53, up 0.14 from the previous trading day, and the shipment sentiment was 3.09, up 0.14 from the previous trading day (historical data is available for query in the database). Overall, with downstream demand recovering and inventories staying low, suppliers quoted high premiums, and transactions were moderate as stockpiling demand increased.
(3) Imported copper: On August 20, the average warrant price remained flat from the previous trading day at $87/mt (price range $79-95/mt); the average B/L price remained flat from the previous trading day at $82/mt (price range $77-87/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price fell $3/mt from the previous trading day to $50/mt (price range $45-55/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving from August to early September.
(4) Secondary copper: On August 20 at 11:30, the futures closing price was 107,370 yuan/mt, up 470 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 350 yuan/mt, down 45 yuan/mt WoW from the previous trading day. Copper scrap prices rose 200 yuan/mt WoW. The copper scrap sales sentiment index fell to 2.69, and the procurement sentiment index fell to 1.88. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,387 yuan/mt, up 199 yuan/mt WoW. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,290 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, copper prices have stopped falling and stabilized, and secondary copper rod enterprises reported increased upstream supply, with worries about further price declines. However, secondary copper rod enterprises noted that the traditional peak season is approaching, and with increased supply, suitable-priced materials were mostly sold out, resulting in active intraday transactions of copper scrap.
Prices: On the macro front, LME inventories increased again, continuing to exert bearish pressure on copper prices. In addition, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the single repurchase limit for bonds might exceed $4 billion, and the US dollar index continued to stay low, providing support for copper prices. Fundamentals: Supply side saw short-term increases in arrivals from domestic sources, while imported arrivals pulled back, marginally easing the tight spot supply situation. Demand side, copper prices continued to consolidate at highs, and downstream enterprises mainly made just-in-time procurement. Inventories: As of Thursday, August 20, SMM copper inventories in major Chinese regions increased by 17,700 mt WoW to 134,400 mt, up 2,700 mt compared to the same period last year.'s 131,700 mt. In summary, copper prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note in a narrow range today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute a direct recommendation for investment research decisions. Clients should make prudent decisions and not use it as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]
![After contract rollover, consumption remains weak, and spot premiums are unlikely to see significant improvement [SMM South China Copper Cathode Spot Weekly Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/grvgR20251217171710.jpg)
