After contract rollover, consumption remains weak, and spot premiums are unlikely to see significant improvement [SMM South China Copper Cathode Spot Weekly Review]

Published: Aug 21, 2026 00:06

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SMM reported on August 20, 2026:

In the Guangdong region, spot premiums this week showed a bottoming-out trend. On Monday, which coincided with the delivery day, spot cargo traded at a large discount amid a wide price spread between futures contracts. After the contract rollover, premiums rebounded significantly, but end-use consumption remained weak, and some suppliers were eager to sell, actively lowering premiums, causing premiums to decline again. As of Thursday, high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, up 160 yuan/mt from last Thursday; standard-quality copper at 110 yuan/mt, up 230 yuan/mt; and SX-EW copper at 40 yuan/mt, up 240 yuan/mt. On Thursday, the price spread between Shanghai and Guangdong for standard-quality copper premiums was 150 yuan/mt higher in Shanghai, still not large enough to trigger cross-regional cargo transfers this week. According to SMM, as of Thursday, total inventory in Guangdong warehouses stood at 20,400 mt, up 5,000 mt from last Thursday; combined warrants totaled 9,400 mt, up 4,200 mt from last Thursday. Suppliers actively shipped to delivery warehouses before the contract rollover due to the wide price spread. Specifically: this week's warehouse arrivals were 18,700 mt/week, up 6,800 mt/week from last week, exceeding the annual average of 14,000 mt/week, mainly due to suppliers actively shipping to delivery warehouses before delivery. Warehouse withdrawals were 13,700 mt/week, down 1,700 mt/week from last week, slightly below the annual average of 14,200 mt/week. After the contract rollover and with copper prices still at high levels, downstream restocking enthusiasm was moderate.

Looking ahead to next week, it is learned that supply from domestic smelters will decrease due to active shipping to delivery warehouses last week, while downstream consumption is expected to gradually recover. Therefore, inventory will decline next week, and spot premiums are expected to consolidate higher.

(The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive assessment by the Shanghai Metals Market research team. The information provided herein is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make cautious decisions and not replace their own independent judgment with this. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.)

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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