[SMM Weekly Review] Cobalt Prices under Pressure, Centers of All Products Continue to Decline

Refined Cobalt:

The decline in spot prices for refined cobalt widened this week, with overall market sentiment weakening. On the supply side, mainstream smelters lowered their ex-factory quotations to 340,000 yuan/mt, while other small and medium-sized smelters largely suspended external quotations due to ongoing loss pressure. On the demand side, downstream enterprises remained in their summer break cycle, with limited purchase willingness and only maintaining small restocking for rigid demand. The price fall this week was mainly sentiment-driven, as overseas spot and futures quotation platforms also reduced their prices, causing previously relatively firm prices outside China to show signs of softening and significantly weighing on Chinese market sentiment. Coupled with the continued weakness in China's cobalt salt and intermediate product prices, bearish sentiment gradually intensified, and some previously wait-and-see suppliers began selling off, further intensifying the downward price pressure. Overall, the current period is the traditional consumption off-season for cobalt, with limited demand-side support, and together with weakening overseas prices and a shift to bearish market sentiment, prices are likely to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

Cobalt Intermediate Products:

The cobalt intermediate products market remained sluggish this week, with actual transactions still limited. Recently, some miners initiated intermediate product tenders multiple times, but due to the large divergence in price expectations between upstream and downstream, no actual deals were reached in the tenders. The latest tender had an indicative price of about $21-21.5/lb. Affected by the continued weakness in cobalt salt and refined cobalt prices, the psychological price levels of downstream smelters and traders for raw materials further pulled back to around $18-19/lb, with some enterprises only able to accept $17/lb. The gap with miners' quotations continued to widen, making actual transactions difficult to materialize. In the short term, although miners have the intention to hold prices firm, downstream demand support is insufficient, and the tug-of-war between buyers and sellers persists. A price recovery still needs to wait for the recovery of actual downstream demand.

Cobalt Sulphate:

The cobalt sulphate market remained sluggish this week, with the stalemate between upstream and downstream unchanged. On the supply side, primary smelters using intermediate products and MHP as raw materials, supported by costs, continued to hold their quotations firm above 80,000 yuan/mt; mainstream recyclers' quotations remained at about 95% of SMM's low-range price, while a few enterprises with higher willingness to sell lowered their quotations to 70,000-73,000 yuan/mt, with even a small number of extremely low prices reported below 70,000 yuan/mt. The demand side remained weak, with downstream procurement target prices continuing to fall, and some extreme inquiries pressing below 70,000 yuan/mt. In the short term, cobalt sulphate prices still face some downward pressure, and a stabilization and recovery in the market will need to wait for the release of concentrated downstream restocking demand.

Cobalt Powder:

The cobalt powder market continued its weak trend this week, with actual transactions remaining sluggish. On the supply side, mainstream producers maintained their quotations in the range of 440,000-460,000 yuan/mt, while some actual transaction prices had dropped to 430,000-440,000 yuan/mt. Low-priced offers in the trading segment increased, further lowering the market's psychological price level. On the raw material side, cobalt carbonate prices were under pressure, with some quotations already falling below the 200,000 yuan/mt mark, pushing market trading to near stagnation and lacking effective transaction guidance. Downstream cemented carbide enterprises were still constrained by end-user orders, with no improvement in raw material consumption speed, and their procurement pace remained slow. Apart from long-term contract orders, spot order transactions were relatively limited. In terms of market sentiment, participants mostly adopted a wait-and-see attitude, generally believing that it would be difficult to see significant improvement in the short term.

SMM New Energy Research Team

Wang Cong 021-51666838

Ma Rui 021-51595780

Feng Disheng 021-51666714

Lyu Yanlin 021-20707875

Xiao Wenhao 021-51666872

Zhang Haohan 021-51666752

Wang Zihan 021-51666914

Wang Jie 021-51595902

Xu Yang 021-51666760

Yang Lianting 021-51595835

Wang Zhaoyu 021-51666827