[SMM Analysis] Spot Lithium Carbonate Prices Consolidate Higher, Downstream Continues Dip-Buying as Needed

Today, the SMM spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate edged up compared to the previous working day. The Lithium Carbonate 2609 contract opened higher today at 143,200 yuan/mt. After opening, it briefly shot up to 143,900 yuan/mt before encountering bearish pressure, then the price quickly pulled back and fell below the average price line. During the morning session, it fluctuated weakly around the 140,000–141,500 yuan/mt range, hitting a low of 139,200 yuan/mt. Around midday, it consolidated at lows, with bulls and bears seesawing repeatedly within the 139,500–140,500 yuan/mt range. In the afternoon, it maintained a weak consolidation pattern. At the end of the session, bullish funds focused their strength, pulling the price rapidly up to around 141,500 yuan/mt, ultimately edging down 0.13% to 141,500 yuan/mt, with open interest decreasing by 6,883 lots.

Spot market, the downstream continued to purchase as needed at low prices, with insufficient willingness to stockpile heavily. Some upstream lithium chemical plants showed signs of easing their willingness to hold prices firm. However, as some plants were still in maintenance and mainly relied on long-term contracts for supply guarantee, their ability to sell spot orders was limited, so actual spot order shipments from the upstream remained relatively small. Overall, market inquiries and actual transactions remained relatively stable.

This week, China’s lithium carbonate production remained basically stable overall. Among this, the salt lake sector, affected by seasonal factors, still had room for further production improvement, while maintenance at spodumene and lepidolite operations continued, leading to slight reductions this week. From the perspective of market transactions and inventory performance, some upstream lithium chemical plants, affected by maintenance, were currently mainly relying on long-term contract supply, and the overall willingness of upstream lithium chemical plants to sell spot orders remained consistently weak, thus in-factory inventory at the upstream accumulated slightly. Downstream material plants continued their strategy of purchasing as needed at low prices, showing no signs of large-scale stockpiling. In the trader segment, affected by tight upstream spot supply and ongoing downstream just-in-time procurement, inventory showed slight destocking.