Metals Broadly Fall, SHFE Tin, SHFE Copper, and Polysilicon Drop More Than 1%, Precious Metals Collectively Slump, SHFE Silver and Platinum Fall Nearly 5% [SMM Midday Review]

SMM July 24 News:

Metal Market:

As of midday, domestic base metals fell broadly. SHFE copper fell 1.21%, SHFE aluminum and SHFE zinc both fell within 0.5%. SHFE lead fell 0.82%. SHFE tin fell 1.59%. SHFE nickel rose 0.2%.

Additionally, casting aluminum most-traded futures fell 0.58%, alumina most-traded rose 0.37%. Lithium carbonate most-traded fell 0.74%. Silicon metal most-traded edged down. Polysilicon most-traded futures fell 1.67%.

Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 0.8%, rebar fell 0.68%, HRC fell 0.3%. Stainless steel fell 0.91%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal most-traded contract was flat at 1,282 yuan/mt, coke most-traded contract edged up 0.05%.

Overseas base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals fell across the board. LME copper rose 0.43%, LME aluminum, LME tin, and LME nickel all fell within 0.5%. LME lead was flat at $1,887/mt.

Precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold fell 0.44%, COMEX silver fell 0.88%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 2.65%; SHFE silver most-traded fell 4.82%.

Additionally, as of midday, platinum most-traded futures fell 4.94%, palladium most-traded futures fell 5.68%.

As of midday, the most-traded Europe container shipping futures fell 1.65% to 2,807.5 points.

As of 11:40 on July 24, some futures midday quotes:

Spot and fundamentals

Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper quoted at 190 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper quoted at a premium of 140 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper quoted at a premium of 80 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 105,085 yuan/mt, down 1,215 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 105,000 yuan/mt, down 1,210 yuan/mt from the previous trading day...

Macro front

Domestic side:

[State Grid's fixed-asset investment in H1 up 12.6% YoY] Today, we learned from State Grid Corporation of China that in H1, State Grid completed fixed-asset investment of over 310 billion yuan, up 12.6% YoY. Among them, construction of 15 ultra-high-voltage (UHV) projects and 37 pumped-storage power stations is accelerating. Meanwhile, investment in new energy grid connection projects continues to increase. As of end-June, the new energy grid-connected installed capacity in State Grid's operating area reached 1.55 billion kW. (CCTV)

[PBOC net withdrawal of 361.5 billion yuan from the open market today] The PBOC conducted 89 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today at an interest rate of 1.40%. A total of 450.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured today.

On the dollar front:

As of 11:40, the US dollar index fell 0.02 to 101.42. As the threat of escalating war in Iran drove up oil prices, US Treasury yields rose to their highest levels of the year, and markets expected the Fed could raise rates as soon as next week. The two-year Treasury yield, most sensitive to Fed policy expectations, rose about 4 basis points on Thursday to around 4.34%, its highest since early 2025. The 10-year Treasury yield hit a year-to-date high, while the 30-year yield rose to 5.19%, just below its highest level since 2007. As Houthi rebels claimed to have attacked a commercial vessel for the first time in months, Brent crude oil has been slowly rebounding toward $100 per barrel. This rise continues to pressure the US Treasury market and has led traders to increasingly believe that the Fed under Warsh will raise rates soon this year. (Jinshi Data APP)

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in July is 65.3%, while the cumulative probability of a 25bp hike is 34.7%. For September, the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 17.6%, the cumulative probability of a 25bp hike is 57%, and the cumulative probability of a 50bp hike is 25.4%.

Meanwhile, initial jobless claims in the US fell sharply last week, indicating that the labour market remains stable and that Fed officials need to continue focusing on curbing inflation. The US Labor Department said on Thursday that initial claims for the week ending July 18 fell by 22,000 to 187,000, compared with expectations of 212,000. Thursday's report was the latest signal of sustained stability in the labour market. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.2% in June, a one-year low, but the decline was more due to a shrinking labour force rather than job growth. The US labour market is exhibiting an unusual balance: limited labour supply, slow job creation, and limited layoffs have kept the unemployment rate at historically low levels. This situation has led a growing number of Fed policymakers to focus more on inflation, which remains well above the 2% target, rather than express greater concern about the strong labour market. (Jinshi Data APP)

Data wise:

Today’s data releases include Germany's August GfK Consumer Confidence Index, UK June seasonally adjusted retail sales m/m, France July Flash Manufacturing PMI, Germany July Flash Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone July Flash Manufacturing PMI, UK July Flash Manufacturing PMI, UK July Flash Services PMI, US July S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI, US July S&P Global Flash Services PMI, and US June New Home Sales Annualized Total. Also of note: the AMD Advancing AI Conference was held in San Francisco on July 22-23; Intel's Q2 earnings were released after the US stock market close on July 23.

Crude oil:

As of 11:40, oil prices in both markets moved sideways, with WTI up 0.01% and Brent down 0.07%.

US-Iran geopolitical tensions continued to escalate. Houthi forces announced attacks on Saudi oil tankers this week, formally turning the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea into a new conflict front and placing global oil supply in a "dual-chokepoint" dilemma. Market analysts warn that if disruptions persist in the Strait of Hormuz and a blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait becomes reality, oil prices could surge to $120 or even higher. Bob McNally, President of Rapidan Energy Group and former White House official, said, "The scale of the second round of military conflict will exceed the first, posing extreme risks to shipping and energy infrastructure." (Wallstreetcn)

ANZ maintained its end-Q3 2026 Brent crude forecast of $92/bbl, reflecting an uneven recovery in oil flows from the Persian Gulf. If regional supply disruptions intensify while market buffers weaken, Brent crude prices could rise to $120/bbl. (Jin10 Data APP)

Spot Market Overview:

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