Surge in Rate Hike Expectations Hammers Nonferrous Metals; SHFE Tin Rebound Aborted, Back to 390,000 Battle [SMM Tin Morning Brief]

SMM Tin Morning Brief, June 29, 2026:

Base metals rose broadly in the night session on the 26th (21:00 on the 26th → 02:30 on the 27th). SHFE tin 2608 closed at 392,000 yuan/mt, up 6,410 yuan, or 1.66%, hitting a session high of 395,320 and a low of 374,500, with an intraday swing exceeding 5%. Open interest added 2,172 lots to 38,781 lots. Capital continued to flow out by 1.44 million yuan, indicating the rebound was primarily driven by short-covering rather than new longs. LME three-month tin on the 26th closed at $51,000/mt, up $850, or 1.69%, reclaiming the $51,000 level. On a weekly basis, however, LME tin still fell 4.30%, and the wound from the three-day sell-off on the SHFE is far from healed. The night session on the 26th is characterized as a ‘technical short-covering repair after the sharp drop’ rather than a trend reversal.

Macro:

(1) PCE breached 4% and Bessent gave the green light to Warsh, raising a September rate hike from a ‘tail risk’ to the ‘base case’. The US headline PCE for May rose 4.1% YoY and core PCE rose 3.4% YoY, both hitting three-year highs; Treasury Secretary Bessent stated on CNBC on the 26th that ‘the President has 100% confidence in Warsh’s judgment and is giving him free rein,’ citing the Greenspan case from 1997 where a ‘single small rate hike did not interrupt the expansion’ to endorse Warsh — Atlanta Fed tracking shows the probability of a rate hike within the year has surpassed 75%, with the market pricing in the earliest move in September, marking the first resumption of tightening in three years. Warsh’s debut has already scrapped forward guidance, with the median dot-plot projection at 3.8%, sharply increasing the probability that the hawkish framework will shift from ‘expectations’ to ‘action.’
(2) Weekly carnage in tech stocks, with the ‘AI metal’ narrative for tin facing a headwind. The Nasdaq fell 4.6% for the week, the Kospi dropped 7.1%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index extended its deleveraging — Micron’s earnings beat expectations but failed to reverse the weakness in the semiconductor sector. Tin, the ‘AI computing solder metal’ most deeply tied to semiconductors over the past year, remains burdened by the memory of capital’s price collapse. While Apple CEO Cook’s narrative of ‘raising prices to offset DRAM/HBM crowding out consumer-grade components’ remains intact for the medium and long term, it is being suppressed in the short term by distant fears of an ‘AI capex slowdown.’
(3) The US dollar index held steady above 101.36, offshore yuan at 6.8048, and the marginal protective buffer from the SHFE/LME price ratio weakened; Brent oil fell 10.6% for the week to $72. Inflation expectations diverged — oil down, PCE up — with the Fed’s decision-making leaning more heavily on the latter.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: The tight pattern in tin ores remains unresolved, but signals of marginal improvement are increasing. In June, most smelters focused on maintaining stable production. (2) Demand side: The traditional off-season effect deepened, with rigid demand support coexisting with high-price suppression. Downstream procurement remained cautious, with purchases made against orders.

Spot market: The early session on the 29th is expected to follow the night session rebound, edging up to the 388,000–393,000 yuan/mt range, with Yunnan Tin’s brand premium holding firm and the discount pattern on imported tin continuing. However, the headwinds from a hawkish upgrade over the weekend plus the weekly drop in semiconductors will need to be digested in the early session on the 29th. If prices open lower and lose the 390,000-yuan level, the spot market may repeat the ‘drip down — wait and see’ pattern; if the 390,000-yuan level holds and downstream restocking on dips follows through, then a positive feedback loop of ‘futures up, spot tracking’ could extend into Wednesday.

[Data source statement: All data other than publicly available information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s proprietary database models. They are for reference only and do not constitute a basis for decision-making recommendations. The information provided is for reference purposes only. This document does not constitute direct investment, research, or decision-making advice. Clients should make prudent decisions and must not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to Shanghai Metals Market.]