South Korean Semiconductor Exports Surge YoY, Reaffirming AI Fever; Tin Prices Consolidate at Highs with "a Ceiling Above and a Floor Below" [SMM Tin Morning Update]

SMM Tin Morning Update, July 21, 2026:

LME: Three-month LME tin closed at $53,290/mt on July 20, up 0.11%, edging up on the week; LME tin inventory 7,520 mt, down 75 mt from the previous day, extending its decline and still at a historically low level, with the ratio of cancelled warrants at 20%.

China: The most-traded SHFE tin 2609 contract closed at 412,480 yuan/mt in the July 20 daytime session, up 0.95%, with open interest rising by 1,043 lots to 31,800 lots; in the night session, prices retreated after rapid rise amid disruptions from oil prices and interest-rate expectations, quoted at around 410,610 yuan/mt before and after 23:00 (-1,300 vs the daytime session), and consolidated around 410,000-413,000 in early trading.

Macro:

(1) Data released by South Korea Customs on Tuesday showed that, driven by the ongoing artificial intelligence (AI) boom, strong semiconductor exports lifted South Korea’s exports in the first 20 days of July by 52.3% YoY. The data showed that from July 1 to 20, South Korea’s total exports reached $54.9 billion, versus $36 billion in the same period last year. Over the same period, import value rose 20% YoY to $42.7 billion, delivering a trade surplus of $12.2 billion. By sector, semiconductor exports continued to lead overall growth, surging 180% to $22.1 billion. Auto exports fell 10.6% to $3.24 billion. By destination, exports to China nearly doubled to $13.3 billion; exports to the US rose 39.6% to $8.96 billion. As of Monday, South Korea’s cumulative exports this year reached $551.2 billion, up 48.7% YoY.
(2) In recent months, AI trades have continued to disrupt Asian equities, while the Australian market has shown relatively strong resilience. Australia’s S&P/ASX200 Index is expected to outperform the MSCI Asia Pacific Index for a second consecutive month, marking the longest streak since November 2024. Australian equities have limited exposure to chipmakers, which was once seen as a disadvantage during the AI rally, but has now become a source of market resilience. As semiconductor stocks in markets such as South Korea and Japan fell, this feature helped Australian equities withstand market shocks. This shift also underscores that, as volatility intensifies, investors are becoming increasingly cautious about crowded AI trades and have begun rotating funds into other markets.
(3) According to Nikkei, Sumitomo Chemical plans to begin mass production as early as fiscal 2028 of a new-type solid-state battery electrolyte material suitable for EVs; this move is expected to reduce costs without sacrificing performance. The new electrolyte adopts a halide system, with elements such as chlorine as key components, and is expected to replace sulphide and oxide electrolyte materials. The material was jointly developed by Sumitomo Chemical, Kyoto University, and Tottori University.

Fundamentals:

(1) Supply: With the rainy season in Wa State nearing its end and TC raised, the margin is easing but remains constrained. Tin concentrate TCs were raised by 500 yuan/mt, for a cumulative increase of 1,750 yuan/mt, reflecting that phased ore supply replenishment has eased smelting pressure; the Wa State rainy season (from May to July) is nearing its end, the pace of resume production has started, but full-year output is still only expected to recover to 40-50% of pre-ban levels, with a full resumption postponed to 2027; whether output ramps up to 1,800 mt/month in metal content after August is the key variable. Indonesia’s refined tin exports in June were 2,995 mt, up 5.09% MoM but down 32.55% YoY; the cumulative total for January to June was 18,715 mt, down 25% YoY, and the tone of exports being halved remains unchanged.

(2) Demand: The off-season has deepened, but AI and semiconductors are providing support. In July, PV welding strip and consumer electronics were in the traditional off-season, and downstream players were cautious at high prices and stayed on the sidelines; stockpiling for new Apple/Huawei models from late August is the next demand trigger.

Spot market: SMM 7/20 1# tin was quoted at 414,850 yuan/mt, with spot premiums slightly firm (a premium of 500-1,500 over SHFE tin 2608), but downstream solder enterprises stayed on the sidelines at high prices, purchasing only small lots for rigid demand; the pattern of struggling to catch up remained unchanged.

[Data Source Statement: Other than publicly available information, all data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]