Mediator proposes a 10-day US-Iran ceasefire; low inventory supports tin prices consolidating at highs amid sentiment tug-of-war [SMM Tin Midday Review]

July 21, 2026 Tin Midday Review

Tin markets in and outside China continued to consolidate at highs. The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened at 414,130 yuan/mt, dipped to around 408,680 yuan/mt during the session before quickly rebounding, and closed the morning at 415,100 yuan/mt, up 0.77%. On the LME, three-month tin was last at $53,480/mt, up 0.36%.

On the macro front:

(1) Qatar and Pakistan, as mediators, proposed a 10-day temporary ceasefire plan to the US and Iran, intending to use the ceasefire window to negotiate the repair and restoration of the previously reached memorandum of understanding, in order to ease the conflict of maritime blockade and cross-border military strikes. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghai confirmed receipt of the mediation proposal, stating that the possibility of negotiations would be assessed based on Iran's core national interests; meanwhile, he pointed out that the US side first violated the memorandum by initiating the blockade and airstrikes, and that Iran's self-defense and diplomatic actions would proceed simultaneously.

(2) On the morning of July 20, CSRC Chairman Wu Qing visited a securities brokerage branch to conduct a survey and presided over an investor symposium, inviting representatives of large, medium and small investors to gather their demands. Investor representatives suggested strengthening counter-cyclical adjustments in the primary and secondary markets, guiding medium and long-term funds such as insurance, social security, and annuities into the market through various channels, and strictly regulating quantitative trading and the use of AI algorithmic applications to further stabilize market expectations.

On the spot front, trading was relatively quiet this morning, with transactions mainly driven by rigid demand. As futures prices fluctuated and rose, downstream and end-user buyers generally remained on the sidelines with limited willingness to buy, and intraday purchases were mainly small-volume restocking orders.

Overall, tin inventory at relatively low levels provided support to the price bottom. However, with spot trades turning quiet and downstream enterprises showing strong wait-and-see sentiment while only maintaining sporadic rigid-demand purchases, significant upward resistance has formed. Against this backdrop, overseas news such as the Middle East situation has become a catalyst for macro sentiment and short-term fluctuations, but it has not distorted the fundamental constraints of supply and demand. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to continue to swing wildly.