Recovering Macro Sentiment Boosted the Non-Ferrous Sector, Tin Prices Rebounded in the Short Term but Support Remained Insufficient [SMM Tin Futures Brief Comment]

On March 25, 2026, driven by a shift in macro sentiment, tin prices opened higher in the early morning but downside support remained limited, with the overall trend staying in the doldrums. The most-traded SHFE tin contract closed at 352,430 yuan/mt today, up 1.91%; LME three-month tin was currently quoted at $44,675/mt, up 2.02%.

The core market logic currently still revolved around the evolving geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Recently, the US proposed a ceasefire plan to Iran containing multiple conditions and actively pushed for negotiations, triggering market expectations of a de-escalation in Middle East geopolitical tensions. Affected by this, crude oil prices pulled back on a phased basis, and safe-haven and anti-inflation demand for capital shifted on a phased basis toward the non-ferrous metals sector and precious metals, driving broad-based gains in non-ferrous metals. Although the US and Iran still diverged in their stances, and the US faced relatively high domestic inflation and public opinion pressure, expectations of easing tensions sharply boosted market sentiment in the short term.

Spot market, after tin prices rebounded today, spot market transactions showed mediocre performance. Downstream enterprises mainly focused on digesting existing inventory, with only sporadic small rigid-demand orders following up in the afternoon. Solder side, affected by price increases in core components such as memory chips in terminal consumer electronics, some major end-user enterprises adjusted prices accordingly. Meanwhile, the market expects the terminal consumer electronics market size to shrink somewhat in 2026, with some capacity accelerating its shift to Southeast Asia and India, putting overall production and shipments under downward pressure. Tin chemicals sector, major downstream PVC was affected by raw material constraints and cost-side upward pressure brought by crude oil price fluctuations, and enterprise operating rates were notably constrained. The tinplate market overall showed a weak but stable performance. Against the backdrop of limited domestic demand absorption in the Chinese market, coupled with anti-dumping policies issued by some countries obstructing exports, enterprises were under pressure from both sides.

Overall, current tin price bottom support was relatively insufficient, and subsequent trends require close observation of the actual evolution of the Middle East situation. In the short term, easing geopolitical tensions and anti-inflation expectations may continue to provide some price stimulus; however, if the situation reverses or further deteriorates, the price center will come under pressure again. Tin prices are expected to continue moving sideways in the near term, with subsequent focus needed on macro sentiment shifts and downstream actual procurement pace.