SMM Morning Brief Nickel 2.24
2026 Chinese New Year Holiday Nickel Market Review and Post-Holiday Outlook
I. Nickel Price Review During the Chinese New Year
During the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday (February 15 to February 23), domestic SHFE nickel was on holiday, while LME nickel prices showed a rebound trend.
Pre-holiday surge: The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced before the holiday that it would significantly lock in the 2026 nickel ore RKAB mining quota at around 260 million tons. Stimulated by this bullish news, market sentiment was strong, with LME nickel surging to $18,070/mt on February 11. The LME nickel 3M contract closed at $17,880/mt that day, up 2.93% from the previous day.
Rebound after mid-holiday pullback: Entering the Chinese New Year holiday (after February 16), SHFE nickel was on break, and the pre-holiday positive news had been digested. During this period, the US dollar index strengthened slightly, putting pressure on LME nickel prices, which fell to $16,830/mt on February 17, down 1.81% from the previous trading day. From February 18 to 20, due to a tailings landslide accident at the Indonesian IMIP park, LME nickel prices rebounded significantly, but still fluctuated below $18,000/mt overall.
II. Key Macro Events and Industry Developments
On February 18, a tailings dam landslide occurred at the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP), resulting in casualties. Operations in the affected area have been suspended.
On February 20, the US Supreme Court ruled that the Trump administration's previous tariff policy was illegal. In response, the Trump administration quickly invoked "Section 122" to announce new 10% global tariffs, which were further increased to 15% the next day.
In terms of geopolitics, US-Iran negotiations have been back and forth. Although there was progress in the talks on February 17, core differences remained, and the US continued to escalate military threats, increasing geopolitical uncertainty.
III. Post-Holiday Outlook
Supply side, due to fewer calendar days in February and some enterprises halting operations during the Chinese New Year, production plans decreased, and refined nickel production is expected to fall about 5% MoM in February. Demand side, as traders and end-users resume operations after the holiday, market transactions are expected to gradually recover. It is anticipated that spot premiums for Jinchuan refined nickel will remain high at 8,000-10,000 yuan/mt, while spot premiums and discounts for domestically produced electrodeposited nickel will stay within the pre-holiday range of -400-400 yuan/mt, with relatively stable fluctuations. The market is expected to enter a phase of wide swings at high levels after the Chinese New Year holiday. On the lower end, the 130,000 yuan/mt threshold for SHFE nickel demonstrates strong resilience due to Indonesia's quota tightening policy; on the upper end, the zone above 145,000 yuan/mt faces strong resistance from high inventory and weak demand. The core trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is projected at 130,000-145,000 yuan/mt after the holiday. Key factors to monitor include whether the anticipated supply contraction materializes as expected, as well as the pace of downstream work resumption and the intensity of restocking demand.
2026 Chinese New Year Holiday Nickel Sulphate Market Review and Post-Holiday Outlook
Happy Chinese New Year!
During the Chinese New Year holiday, the nickel sulphate market remained relatively calm, with purchasing and sales activities largely suspended. On the production side, some producers continued operations, while others halted production for maintenance. In terms of procurement and sales, most downstream enterprises that did not suspend operations during the holiday had stocked up on raw materials in advance, resulting in subdued market sentiment.
Looking ahead to the post-holiday market, cost side, nickel prices were primarily influenced by US tariff policies and a tailings landslide in Indonesia during the holiday, leading to a noticeable rebound in the latter half of the period, which pushed up the immediate production costs of nickel sulphate. Supply side, fewer production days in February combined with the impact of holiday shutdowns are expected to reduce the overall supply of nickel sulphate. Additionally, given the relatively high level of nickel prices, refined nickel producers are likely to continue favoring refined nickel production, further reducing the availability of nickel sulphate for external sales. Demand side, downstream production was also affected by the holiday, leading to an overall pullback in procurement demand. However, purchasing sentiment is expected to rebound by month-end as operations resume after the holiday.
Overall, the supply-demand structure of the nickel sulphate market is expected to improve slightly compared to the pre-holiday period, with nickel prices likely to provide cost support for nickel sulphate prices.
2026 Chinese New Year Holiday High-Grade NPI Market Review and Post-Holiday Outlook
According to SMM, during the Chinese New Year holiday, the domestic high-grade NPI market showed weakness on both the supply and demand sides, with overall trading activity being sluggish.
Supply side, domestic smelters generally implemented production cuts during the holiday, leading to a significant decline in trading activity and a noticeable contraction in high-grade NPI supply. Additionally, prior to the holiday, Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources set the 2026 nickel ore RKAB mining quota at around 260 million mt, significantly fueling market concerns over tight supply. Demand side, downstream stainless steel enterprises had completed stockpiling before the holiday, and coupled with holiday-related shutdowns, procurement demand for high-grade NPI saw a significant pullback, resulting in overall sluggish market trading.
Looking ahead, from a macro perspective, influenced by Indonesia's tighter quota policy, nickel prices are expected to enter a phase of wide swings at high levels after the holiday, which will drive high-grade NPI prices. Cost side, due to the impact of the quota tightening news and the tailings landslide incident at Indonesia's IMIP park, nickel ore prices have risen, and high-grade NPI costs are expected to continue increasing, providing further support for high-grade NPI prices. Overall, with the dual support of high refined nickel prices and rising nickel ore costs, high-grade NPI prices are expected to receive strong backing, and the market trading center is likely to steadily move upward.
2026 Chinese New Year Holiday Stainless Steel Market Review and Post-Holiday Outlook
During the Chinese New Year holiday, the domestic stainless steel market entered a seasonal lull, with the SHFE also closed for the holiday. Spot trading was suspended, and prices showed no significant fluctuations. Overall, before the holiday, the market exhibited a pattern of strengthening futures, stagnant spot trading, weak supply and demand, and significant inventory buildup. After the holiday, the market is expected to gradually restart, with an overall trend likely to fluctuate upward, though the pace of increase may be constrained.
Before the holiday, SHFE nickel and stainless steel futures strengthened on news of tightened nickel ore quotas in Indonesia but later pulled back slightly as investors took profits. On the supply side, multiple stainless steel mills conducted concentrated annual equipment maintenance, leading to a significant expected decline in the industry's production schedule. On the demand side, downstream end-users also entered a holiday period, halting procurement and creating a weak supply-demand dynamic. Slightly rising raw material prices provided some cost support, but steel mills did not experience significant losses. Combined with pre-holiday downtime among downstream players and traders, social inventory saw a notable buildup, limiting price increases.
After the holiday, the spot market is gradually restarting, though some traders remain on holiday during the first week. Market transactions are expected to gradually increase, with spot prices likely to hold up well in the short term. Over the medium to long term, as downstream operations resume, a recovery is anticipated. The futures market continues to have supportive factors. Against the backdrop of a relatively weak market, downstream end-users were cautious with pre-holiday stockpiling and are expected to enter a restocking phase after the holiday. Coupled with the approaching traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March, Silver April," demand is likely to recover first, followed by supply adjustments, potentially leading to further increases in stainless steel prices.
2026 Chinese New Year Holiday Nickel Intermediate Product Market Review and Post-Holiday Outlook
I. Price Review
The nickel intermediate product market experienced a holiday-induced standstill, with coefficients holding flat. For MHP, few transactions were concluded. On the supply side, upstream smelters had sold out their Q1 supply, while Q2 offers were not yet available. Although traders provided sporadic offers, few deals were finalized amid a lack of clear direction from both upstream and downstream participants. On the demand side, some downstream nickel salt smelters suspended operations during the holiday, while other operating producers consumed raw material inventories, resulting in minimal procurement activity by enterprises. Against the backdrop of an overall tight supply-demand balance, both the nickel payables and cobalt payables for MHP remained at elevated levels this week. In the high-grade nickel matte segment, the market maintained a tight supply-demand balance, with coefficients unchanged.
Regarding nickel prices during the Chinese New Year holiday, prices surged before the holiday as Indonesia significantly reduced its 2026 nickel ore RKAB quota to approximately 250–260 million mt, fueling strong bullish sentiment in the market. After a mid-holiday pullback, prices rebounded. On February 17, LME nickel closed at $16,830/mt, down 1.81% from the previous trading day. From February 18 to 20, LME nickel prices rebounded noticeably due to a tailings landslide accident at the Indonesian IMIP park, yet overall prices continued to fluctuate below $18,000/mt. In summary, nickel prices rose MoM during the Chinese New Year holiday.
Combining coefficients, both MHP and high-grade nickel matte nickel prices increased during the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday (February 15–23), while MHP cobalt prices also moved higher.
II. Industry Developments
On January 18, 2026, a tailings dam at a nickel intermediate product project in an Indonesian park experienced a landslide. The affected area has currently suspended operations.
III. Post-Holiday Outlook
For nickel intermediate product coefficients, in the MHP market, due to expectations of firm nickel prices coupled with low downstream acceptance of high prices, nickel payables are expected to have slight downside room after the holiday, while cobalt payables are likely to hold firm at high levels. In the high-grade nickel matte market, strong cost support and sellers’ firm price stance are expected to keep nickel payables steady at elevated levels. Regarding nickel prices, expectations of tightening supply remain the core driver, and prices are anticipated to enter a phase of wide swings at high levels after the Chinese New Year holiday, which will in turn drive nickel intermediate product prices. Cost side, for the key auxiliary material sulfur, the market is under pressure in the short term due to holiday sentiment disruptions. However, as smelting capacity in Indonesia continues to be released, sulfur, as a core raw material for acid production, still has solid long-term regional demand support. Prices are expected to remain in a high range with sideways movement, and there is still upside room in the long run. Regarding nickel ore prices, factors such as quota tightening news, the impact of the tailings landslide accident at the Indonesian IMIP park, and expectations of raw material stocking for new MHP project commissioning are expected to drive nickel ore prices higher. Overall, costs for MHP and high-grade nickel matte are projected to continue rising.
2026 Chinese New Year Holiday Nickel Ore Market Review and Post-Holiday Outlook
Philippine Market: Seasonal Slump and Supply Constraints
During the Chinese New Year holiday, nickel ore trading activity in the Philippines remained sluggish, with minimal trading volume. This stagnation was primarily due to Chinese buyers being away during the holiday. Supply side, shipments were still concentrated in the northern regions, while volumes from Surigao and other southern areas remained low. Although port inventories in China declined, smelter demand for Philippine ore remained weak during the holiday. This lackluster demand was attributed to persistently high prices for Philippine nickel ore and the fact that many smelters had built up sufficient inventories by the end of last year. Furthermore, the ongoing rainy season, which began in December, continued to constrain supply, providing steady upward pressure on prices. These high prices were further supported by increased market uncertainty regarding future domestic supply from Indonesia in the coming months.
Indonesian Market: Policy Uncertainty and RKAB Quota Restrictions
In the Indonesian market, participants remained in a "wait-and-see" mode, awaiting the full implementation of RKAB (mining quota) approvals. While several major miners had received approvals, many mines faced significantly reduced quotas compared to the previous year. This trend supports the likelihood of the government enforcing stricter annual RKAB regulations in the short term, with a national annual quota ceiling controlled at approximately 260 million to 270 million wmt. Consequently, many smelters now face urgent ore shortages, with only a few enterprises holding sufficient inventory to sustain long-term operations. During the Chinese New Year holiday, the domestic trade benchmark price (HPM) for the second half of February dropped slightly by 0.58% to $17,670. However, with the approaching Ramadan and continued uncertainties surrounding government approvals, market sentiment widely expects that RKAB approval hurdles will persist, indicating a high probability of an upward trend in domestic Indonesian nickel ore prices and premiums.
![[SMM Analysis] Review and Post-Holiday Outlook of the High-Grade NPI Market During the 2026 Chinese New Year Holiday](https://imgqn.smm.cn/production/admin/news/cn/thumb/hHphz20170927150432.jpeg?imageView2/1/w/176/h/110/q/100)
