SMM January 12 News:
Key Points: Overseas solid-state batteries show a pattern with sulphides as the mainstream, oxides targeting high-end applications, and polymers exploring alternative paths. Japanese and South Korean enterprises have the most mature technology, with Toyota, Samsung, and SK On planning mass production from 2026-2029, though this will likely be delayed; US companies are capital-driven but lack clear commercialization pathways; Europe focuses on high-end applications. The core bottlenecks lie in interface impedance degradation, low-temperature performance, and mass production costs, with the final battle for technological routes expected after 2030.
The global solid-state battery race has moved beyond the laboratory concept validation stage, entering a critical window of "engineering-industrialisation." From the layout of nearly 30 overseas enterprises, the industry shows three major characteristics: diversified technological routes, regional factions, and highly convergent mass production timelines. Originally, the first batch of commercial products was expected to land between 2026-2029, but due to technical maturity and cost control, this is now projected to be delayed until 2030-2035.
I. Technological Routes: Sulphides Take Center Stage, Oxides Target High-End, Polymers Explore New Scenarios
Overseas enterprises clearly present a pattern of "sulphides as the mainstream, oxides for high-end, and polymers finding their niche."
Sulphide-based routes, represented by Toyota, Samsung SDI, LG Chem, Nissan, and Honda, account for over 60%. This route has the highest ionic conductivity, close to that of liquid electrolytes (10⁻³ S/cm), supporting energy densities exceeding 500Wh/kg. However, it suffers from poor chemical stability, requires an inert atmosphere for production, and faces challenges in controlling interface impedance. In October 2025, Toyota obtained production approval in Japan for its sulphide-based solid-state battery, which boasts an energy density of 500Wh/kg, 2000 cycles, and a driving range of 1200km after a 10-minute charge. It is set to be used in Lexus flagship models in 2027, leading globally in technological maturity. US companies like Factorial Energy and Solid Power also focus on sulphides. The former, in collaboration with Mercedes, delivered Solstice batteries with a capacity of 400Ah and 2000 cycles, while the latter provided A-samples to BMW for vehicle testing. The core challenge for the sulphide camp lies in stringent mass production processes—Samsung SDI requires an oxygen-free environment for packaging, LG Chem focuses on polymer semi-solid state transition before 2026, and although SK On's Tennessee pilot plant is scheduled for mass production in 2029, cost reduction remains difficult.
Oxide-based routes, led by QuantumScape, ProLogium Technology, and Rimac Technology, have the highest technical barriers but offer the best safety and longevity. QuantumScape's ceramic separator technology achieves a volumetric energy density of 1000Wh/L and a lifespan of 4 million km, with deep ties to Volkswagen and Porsche. Small-scale production of QSE-5B is planned for 2025, but the mass production timeline is unclear, and technical risks remain. ProLogium Technology uses a 3D ceramic structure to avoid high-temperature sintering, achieving an energy density of 260Wh/kg in collaboration with Rimac, with plans to use it in high-performance EVs by 2027. The advantage of oxides is their wide electrochemical window (0-6V) suitable for high-voltage cathodes, but they suffer from high grain boundary impedance and brittleness, requiring interface modification layers, which limit large-scale application.
Polymer-based routes, represented by France's Bolloré, Blue Solutions, and US-based Ionic Materials, seek differentiated markets through thin-film and flexible designs. Bolloré has already commercialized the Bluecar, with lithium-metal polymer batteries offering an energy density of 380Wh/L and a 15-year lifespan, but they require operating temperatures of 60-80°C, limiting their application. Blue Solutions plans to launch a fourth-generation product with an energy density of 450Wh/kg by 2030, collaborating with PTL on material equipment, targeting the European market. The core advantage of polymers is their good processability, compatible with existing roll-to-roll processes, but they have low room-temperature conductivity, requiring heating systems, making it difficult to balance cost and efficiency.
II. Regional Competition: Japan Has the Most Mature Technology, the US Is Capital-Driven, South Korea Aggressively Expands Production, and Europe Focuses on High-End Applications
Japan's four giants (Toyota, Nissan, Honda, Maxell) form the first tier of technology, leveraging their early lead in sulphides and material science, with a strong patent barrier. Toyota received government funding and policy support in 2025, with Sumitomo Metal providing high-durability cathode materials, completing a closed-loop industry chain. Nissan's Yokohama pilot plant began operations in January 2025, with an energy density of 400-500Wh/kg, and plans for large-scale production in 2028. Maxell targets high-temperature industrial scenarios, with 150°C-tolerant battery samples shipped in November, and a 10 billion yen investment in a Kyoto production line by 2030. Japan's model is a "government-conglomerate-automaker" triangle, solid in technology but conservative in marketization.
US companies exhibit dual features of "technological diversification and capital-driven growth." QuantumScape, Factorial, and Solid Power, three unicorns, have received significant investments from traditional automakers, raising over $3 billion, but their mass production timelines generally lag behind those of Japan and South Korea. Blue Current, backed by Amazon with an $80 million D-round investment, focuses on silicon-based composite anodes; Ensurge collaborates with Corning on micro-batteries for wearable devices. The US advantage is an active capital market, tolerating longer R&D cycles, but lacking deep integration with automakers, making commercialization paths unclear.
South Korea's three leaders (Samsung SDI, LG, SK On) adopt a "aggressive expansion and automaker partnerships" strategy. Samsung SDI has an annual capacity of 15,000 batteries, delivering samples to Hyundai; LG Chem plans to move from semi-solid state in 2026, to lithium-sulfur in 2027, and lithium-metal in 2028; SK On, with a stable customer base including Hyundai, Mercedes, and Ford, will start production at its 4628㎡ Daejeon pilot plant in September 2025, with mass production advanced to 2029. The Korean model prioritizes efficiency, advancing both domestic and overseas plants in Tennessee and Hesse, but lacks the originality of Japanese technology.
Europe breaks through with technological innovation and high-end applications. Croatia's Rimac collaborates with ProLogium on high-performance vehicles, while the UK's Bolloré Bluecar has been in operation for 15 years, and Blue Solutions plans to increase energy density by 25% with its fifth-generation technology by 2035. Europe lacks local battery giants but positions itself upstream in the value chain through material innovation (Solvay polymers) and equipment development (Manz), targeting high-value sectors like aerospace and medical.
III. Mass Production Challenges: Three Bottlenecks Hindering 2027 Goals
Despite aggressive timetables, three bottlenecks remain unresolved: interface impedance degradation, leading to capacity retention below 90% after 1000 cycles; low-temperature performance, with capacity dropping over 30% below -20°C; and current sulphide battery costs being 2-3 times that of liquid batteries, with cost reduction dependent on kiloton-scale electrolyte production (Tinci and Yanyi New Materials plan to achieve this by 2027). Additionally, automotive-grade validation requires 2-3 years of safety and reliability testing. Models like Hongqi Tian Gong 06 and SAIC MG4 have only completed the first step of vehicle testing, with large-scale SOP expected after 2028.
IV. Future Outlook: 2029 Will Be the Decisive Year, with Sulphides + NCM811 or Ni90+ Likely to Dominate
Overall, the final battle for technological routes, originally expected between 2029-2030, may extend to 2030-2035. By then, Toyota, SK On, and Solid Power will have achieved mass production, with cost and performance data determining the final selection. The combination of sulphides, high-nickel ternary, and silicon-based/lithium metal anodes is expected to break through in high-end models first, while low-cost oxides and LFP semi-solid-state batteries (solid-liquid batteries) will find a niche in the ESS sector. If US companies fail to secure automaker partnerships by then, they may face a valuation bubble burst.
According to SMM forecasts, all-solid-state battery shipments will reach 13.5 GWh by 2028, while semi-solid-state battery shipments will reach 160 GWh. Global lithium-ion battery demand is projected to reach approximately 2,800 GWh by 2030, with the EV sector's lithium-ion battery demand showing a CAGR of around 11% from 2024 to 2030, ESS lithium-ion battery demand at a CAGR of about 27%, and consumer electronics lithium battery demand at a CAGR of roughly 10%. Global solid-state battery penetration is estimated at about 0.1% in 2025, with all-solid-state battery penetration expected to reach around 4% by 2030, and global solid-state battery penetration potentially approaching 10% by 2035.
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