[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Non-ferrous metals generally rose on May 14, with nickel prices rebounding. The US unadjusted core CPI year-on-year rate for April was 2.8%

SMM Nickel News on May 14:

Macro News:

(1) On May 13, the US Department of Labor released the April CPI data. The unadjusted year-on-year CPI rate was 2.3%, hitting a new low since February 2021 and falling below the expected 2.4%. The seasonally adjusted month-on-month CPI rate was 0.2%, also missing the expected 0.3%. In April, the unadjusted year-on-year core CPI rate in the US was 2.8%, in line with market expectations and remaining at the lowest level since March 2021. The month-on-month rate was 0.2%, lower than the market expectation of 0.3%.

(2) The State Taxation Administration uses VAT invoice data calculated at current prices to monitor the daily sales revenue of enterprises nationwide, reflecting the macroeconomic operation trend. The latest data shows that in April, the growth rate of nationwide enterprise sales revenue accelerated, with a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, continuing the steady growth trend since Q4 last year. This reflects the continuous release of the effects of a package of existing and incremental policies since the end of September last year, boosting the economic rebound.

Spot Market:

Today, the SMM 1# refined nickel price is 124,500-125,350 yuan/mt, with an average price of 124,925 yuan/mt, up 1,125 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan No.1 nickel is 2,100-2,200 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,150 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The premium and discount quotation range for Russian nickel is 100-300 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 200 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

Futures Market:

Today, non-ferrous metals generally rose. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (NI2506) opened lower in the night session yesterday and then continued to rise. The daytime session maintained the upward trend, closing at 125,060 yuan/mt by 11:30, with a gain of 0.67%.

The China-US economic and trade talks reached a consensus on tariff issues, easing trade tensions. Currently, nickel ore prices remain high, and the shortage of supply in mining areas persists, driving up the costs of the nickel industry chain. However, under the supply surplus situation, cost transmission is hindered, and nickel prices may remain in the doldrums, with a support level at 122,000 yuan/mt and a resistance level at 128,000 yuan/mt. Subsequent attention should be paid to policy adjustments in Indonesia and changes in nickel ore supply after the end of the rainy season in the Philippines.