China primary aluminum alloy industry leaders' operating rate recorded at 60%, production pace expected to remain stable during the holiday [SMM Analysis]

SMM, September 24:
As of September 24, 2026, the operating rate of China's leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises was recorded at 60%, maintaining a relatively stable overall trend. Production pace on the enterprise side remained steady, while downstream demand recovery fell short of expectations. High aluminum prices constrained trading activity and procurement demand to a certain extent. During the holiday period, downstream clients had no shutdown plans, and primary aluminum alloy enterprises generally maintained normal production schedules, with operating rates expected to remain stable.

1. Enterprise side: Leading enterprises maintained normal production pace, with operating rate recorded at 60%

The SMM survey shows that this week, the operating rate of China's leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises was recorded at 60%, basically flat compared with the previous period, continuing a relatively stable overall trend.

From the enterprise side, most leading enterprises are currently maintaining normal production pace, with no significant adjustments or fluctuations observed, and production plans remain stable overall. In terms of raw materials, liquid aluminum supply is currently normal, providing a foundation for the stable operation of primary aluminum alloy production, with no notable changes on the production side.

2. Demand side: Automobile production recovered slightly, while high aluminum prices suppressed restocking willingness

From the downstream demand perspective, automobile production has recovered somewhat compared with the previous period, but the recovery strength fell short of market expectations, and demand growth remains somewhat constrained.

Despite entering the traditional September-October peak season, aluminum prices have remained at highs above 24,000 yuan/mt, constraining overall trading activity and downstream procurement demand to a certain extent. High aluminum prices have raised procurement costs to some degree and made downstream enterprises more cautious in restocking and purchasing, thereby limiting further release of demand.

Overall, the traditional peak season has "not been very strong yet," and substantive improvement in demand still requires further observation.

3. Holidays: Downstream has no shutdown plans, and operating rates are expected to remain flat

Based on market feedback, downstream clients currently have no shutdown plans during the Mid-Autumn Festival (September 25-27) and National Day (October 1-7) holidays, meaning overall production pace will not experience significant disruption during the holiday period. Given this situation, primary aluminum alloy enterprises are also generally maintaining normal production plans, and production is expected to see no major fluctuations during the holidays, with overall operations continuing at the current operating rate level.

4. Market outlook: Consumption recovery still needs verification, and operating rates are expected to improve slightly after the holidays

Enterprises surveyed reported that market conditions are expected to improve after the holidays, with overall operating rates anticipated to rise. However, the core constraint remains sluggish end-use consumption recovery, compounded by high aluminum prices that may further suppress downstream restocking willingness. Overall, the primary aluminum alloy industry currently maintains stability on the supply side, while the demand side has shown some recovery but still falls short of expectations. Combined with the dampening effect of high aluminum prices on trade and consumption, the short-term market is expected to continue a stable-to-weak operating pattern. SMM will continue to track order continuity and inventory changes after the National Day holiday.

(The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive assessment by the SMM research team. The information provided herein is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to Shanghai Metals Market.)

Data source: SMM