[SMM Analysis] Construction Steel Demand Pulled Back Seasonally This Period

The Bureau of International Recycling (BIR) reported that global recycled steel consumption grew by 4.5% year-on-year to 480 million metric tons (mt) in 2025 across key markets, even as global crude steel output fell by 1.9% to approximately 1.85 billion mt. Global direct reduced iron (DRI) production also climbed 4.9% to 153 million mt, largely driven by India's 7.4% output increase to 58.9 million mt. In terms of trade flows, the EU-27 and the US remained the largest scrap exporters at 16.68 million mt and 11.76 million mt, respectively, while Turkey retained its position as the top importer with 18.76 million mt despite a 6.6% volume decline. Pakistan posted exceptionally strong import growth, surging 39.8% to 3.02 million mt. This decoupling of scrap consumption from total crude steel production underscores the accelerating global shift toward lower-carbon electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking. The sustained demand for scrap and DRI signals structurally tighter future raw material supplies, which will continually reshape global trade dynamics as countries secure resources for decarbonization.

Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) has officially initiated an anti-dumping investigation into cold-rolled coil (CRC) and hot-rolled coil (HRC) imported from South Korea, China, and Taiwan. The probe, prompted by petitions from domestic producers including Nippon Steel and JFE Steel, targets the growing market penetration of these imports. According to METI, CRC import volumes increased from 830,818 metric tons (mt) in fiscal year 2021 to 874,353 mt in fiscal year 2023, while HRC imports surged from 1.22 million mt in FY2021 to 1.43 million mt between October 2024 and September 2025. Scheduled to conclude within one year, this defensive trade measure highlights the intense pressure on Japanese steelmakers caused by lower-priced imports amid stagnant domestic demand. If duties are imposed, it could significantly restrict regional trade flows, forcing foreign suppliers to divert tonnages elsewhere while simultaneously tightening local supply to support the profit margins and pricing power of Japanese mills.

Italy's metallurgical and steel association, Assofermet, has issued a stark warning regarding the severe impact of the European Union's upcoming trade defense mechanisms on downstream processors and distributors. With the current steel safeguard regime set to expire on July 1, 2026, new provisions will introduce a strict annual duty-free quota of approximately 18.3 million metric tons (mt) for steel imports, and any volumes exceeding this cap will face a punitive 50% duty. Coupled with the mandatory origin tracing for steel melting and pouring, and the full implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) since January 1, 2026, these policies disproportionately favor upstream producers. Assofermet argues that this unbalanced protection will trigger surging raw material costs and reduced sourcing options for the downstream supply chain, which could ultimately suppress overall European steel demand and erode the continent's manufacturing competitiveness on the global stage.