As manufacturers faced significant inventory pressure, glass prices for new orders in July significantly reduced again [SMM Analysis]

In July, domestic glass prices continued to decline, but the prices of first-tier glass producers have not yet been finalized. As of July 4, the new prices for glass are as follows: 2.0mm single-layer coated (15.0-16.0 yuan/square meter); 2.0mm double-layer coated (16.0-17.0 yuan/square meter); 3.2mm single-layer coated (24.0-26.0 yuan/square meter); 3.2mm double-layer coated (25.0-27.0 yuan/square meter). At the beginning of July, domestic PV glass prices fell again, with the prices of 2.0mm single and double-layer coated glass dropping by 1 yuan/square meter this week; the prices of 3.2mm single and double-layer coated glass decreased by 0.5 yuan/square meter.

The domestic glass prices in early July still saw a significant decline. The price of 2.0mm glass dropped by 1.0 yuan per square meter. However, this round of price decline mainly affected second- and third-tier glass producers, while the prices of leading producers were not yet finalized at the beginning of July and were still under negotiation with module companies. The main reason for this price drop was the significant increase in the overall inventory of PV glass in the domestic market. According to SMM statistics, as of July 4, the average inventory days of PV glass in the domestic market is 29.1 days, with some second- and third-tier producers having inventories exceeding 30 days. Under the pressure of high inventory levels, the atmosphere for glass producers to offer discounts and take orders in July was strong, with companies lowering prices to the cost line to prioritize shipments.

From the perspective of supply and demand, in July, one new and one cold-repaired kiln were ignited domestically, with new capacity at 1,200 mt/day and cold-repaired capacity at 650 mt/day. Meanwhile, kilns ignited in April began to ramp up production, leading to a rapid increase in glass supply in July. However, on the demand, although PV module production slightly increased, the increase was minimal. It is expected that the supply in July will still be in surplus, and the surplus will expand compared to June, weakening price support.

In summary, for the price forecast in July, SMM believes that the transaction prices and high prices of glass will continue to decline, with low-price support gradually emerging, but the decline will be limited. With the increase in supply and weak demand, glass inventories are expected to continue rising, and the bargaining power of leading glass producers is also expected to weaken, with high-price support decreasing. Therefore, it is expected that the high prices still have room to fall. SMM predicts a decrease of 0.5 yuan/square meter.