The US Fed's Rate Cut Expectations Are Continuously Delayed, Weak Supply and Demand Gradually Unfolded [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes]

From a macro perspective, Bowman, a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, clearly stated that it is not yet the appropriate time for a rate cut. She expects the inflation to gradually return to the 2% target level while the policy rate remains unchanged. Additionally, she expressed her willingness to support further interest rate hikes if inflation stalls or reverses in the future. Regarding domestic policies, the Ministry of Finance, in conjunction with four other departments, issued a fiscal interest subsidy policy for equipment renewal loans. Specifically, for loans issued by banks to eligible business entities, the central government will provide a 1% interest subsidy on the loan principal, effective from the date the loan funds are paid to the supplier, with a maximum subsidy period of two years.

On the supply and demand front, due to significant difficulties in the short-term resumption of tin mining in Wa State, Myanmar, and Indonesian strict export restrictions this year, the supply of overseas tin ingots is expected to remain limited. Additionally, the closure of the tin ingot import window means that the overseas resources cannot effectively supplement the supply in the domestic market. This week, treatment charges for tin concentrates have comprehensively decreased, indicating a tightening supply at the mining end. As the routine maintenance period approaches, some smelters have shut down or are expected to shut down for maintenance. However, considering the currently high social inventory of domestic tin ingots and the upcoming off-season, the conflict between supply and demand is not significant.

In summary, macro news has a relatively noticeable impact on SHFE tin prices, while the conflict in supply and demand is relatively weak, making it difficult to have a decisive impact on current tin prices. SMM expects SHFE tin prices to show a fluctuating upward trend.