As cost and demand support weakened, where is the new price bottom line for quartz crucibles?

As of May 17, the SMM domestic market prices for 36-inch photovoltaic quartz crucibles were 14,000-18,000 yuan/each, with an average price of 16,000 yuan/each. The price has dropped by 6,000 yuan/each compared to pre-holiday levels, and it is likely to continue declining.

Recently, the price of 36-inch photovoltaic quartz crucibles in the domestic market dropped again, with the current average price falling to 16,000 yuan/each. Since March, the demand from the downstream silicon wafer sector has started to weaken due to the overall decline in the photovoltaic market demand, leading to a reduction in scheduled production of silicon wafers. According to SMM statistics, the domestic silicon wafer production in April was 65.5GW, down 9.73% MoM. The scheduled production for May is expected to further decrease to less than 62GW, indicating a further weakening in demand support.

In addition, the collapse of cost support also led to another drop in crucible prices. According to SMM statistics, as of May 17, the domestic price for inner layer sand used in crucibles was 170,000-210,000 yuan/mt, for middle layer sand was 100,000-130,000 yuan/mt, and for outer layer sand was 24,000-80,000 yuan/mt. Prices have been impacted by weakened crucible demand and a rapid increase in quartz sand inventories. Companies started to cut prices to clear inventories, resulting in prices nearly halving compared to the same period in April, with cost support dropping rapidly.

For the current market after the price reduction of crucibles, transactions slightly resumed but have not significantly improved. Silicon wafer companies, considering their own costs and profits, plan to further lower crucible prices. Therefore, recent purchases are mainly small batches based on rigid demand, with less concentrated procurement. There is still a wait-and-see attitude towards spot goods, and transactions are limited. The pressure to sell crucibles remained high.

Therefore, for the subsequent price forecast, SMM believes that the price of quartz crucibles will continue to decline, but to a limited extent. Considering the current price of 36-inch photovoltaic quartz crucibles, due to the current usage ratio of inner, mid and outer layer sand at 4:3:3 domestically and internationally, crucible prices have begun to receive certain cost support after recent drop, leaving limited room for concessions in price negotiations. It is estimated that the lowest transaction price for this round of crucibles may be around 13,000 yuan/each, and the price of 33-inch crucibles is expected to fall below 10,000 yuan/each.