[SMM analysis] Lithium mine supply is relatively optimistic, with prices stabilizing in the near future.

According to SMM statistics, China's lithium mine production totaled approximately 20,609 mt of LCE (lithium carbonate equivalent) in April 2024, representing a month-on-month increase of 29% and a year-on-year increase of 54%.

In terms of lithium mine production, China's spodumene production was approximately 3,785 mt of LCE, while lepidolite production reached approximately 16,824 mt of LCE in April. The overall lithium mining industry in China is showing signs of ramp-up and recovery. Although a new round of environmental inspections at the beginning of May has introduced some uncertainty regarding mica mining in Jiangxi, the progress of spodumene mining in Xinjiang has been impressive. Additionally, with increasing imports of African lithium mines from April to May, the supply and demand situation in the lithium mine market is expected to shift from a tight balance to a more relaxed state in May.

Regarding lithium mine prices, both lepidolite and spodumene prices have shown a slight downward trend recently. This is mainly due to the low purchasing sentiment among lithium carbonate and downstream material plants before and after the May Day holiday. Most of them have already stocked up at lower prices in mid-to-late April, resulting in a relatively subdued market transaction situation. Although the current oversupply situation is evident, a significant amount of overseas imported spodumene is being processed into lithium carbonate and absorbed by the market, limiting the actual amount of ore available for purchase in the spot market. This has played a role in pulling back the downward trend of lithium mine prices. Overall, lithium mine prices are expected to remain stable with some room for slight downward adjustments.