SMM Aluminum Market Morning Comment (Apr 8)

At last Wednesday’s session, the most-traded SHFE 2405 aluminum contract opened at 19,885 yuan/mt, with its lowest and highest at 19,810 yuan/mt and 19,965 yuan/mt before closing at 19925 yuan/mt, up 115 yuan/mt or 0.58%. LME aluminum opened at $2,435/mt last Friday, with its high and low at $2,455.5/mt and $2,418.5/mt respectively before closing at $2,451/mt, an increase of $6/mt or 0.25%.

Summary: On the macro level, the US non-farm data for March increased beyond expectations, coupled with a decline in the unemployment rate, the strong employment data further delayed the Fed's expectations of a rate cut. In addition, favourable policies such as "trade-in" and "car loan policies" have been introduced in China, and the macro sentiment is bullish. Fundamentally, domestic aluminum supply slowly increased, but the import window remained closed, reducing the impact of the inflow of overseas aluminum ingots. Demand expectations for new energy vehicles and photovoltaics boosted aluminum consumption expectations, and aluminum ingots inventory continued to drop. Aluminum prices are expected to continue to swing on a strong note.