The Shifting Landscape of Electric Vehicles: Why the World's Top Lithium Producer Cuts 2030 Demand Forecast Amidst Slow EV Penetration in the West

Due to a slower-than-expected shift to electric vehicles in the United States and Europe, Albemarle (ALB.US), the world's largest lithium producer, has revised down its demand forecast for lithium, a crucial battery material, in 2030.

Last Friday, Albemarle predicted that the global demand for lithium carbonate equivalent would be 3.3 million tons by 2030, a 10% reduction from the previous estimate of 3.7 million tons, according to reports citing an interview with Eric Norris, the President of Albemarle's lithium business.

Norris stated that the lithium producer is adjusting its forecast due to delays by automakers in introducing electric vehicles to Western markets. "Some models have been delayed, mainly outside of North America, delaying the adoption in the United States," he said. He added that this transition is also expected to take longer in certain regions of Europe.

Norris made these remarks as Albemarle CEO Kent Masters stated last Thursday that lithium prices have plummeted 80% since early last year, which is unsustainable, and prices need to rise to trigger the supply investments necessary to meet long-term demand growth.

Masters, during a post-earnings conference call, said, "We believe the current prices are unsustainable." He added that at current prices, lithium projects in the West, in particular, face risks. "To incentivize producers to meet this demand, we need long-term pricing at or above investment economic returns."

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Robin He

SMM Li-ion Battery Materials Department

E: robinhe@smm.cn | T: +86-21-51595884