China Refined Nickel Imports Fell In September And To Drop Further In October

According to customs data, China imported 6,261 mt of refined nickel (including nickel and cobalt total content of ≥99.99%, cobalt ≤0.005% unwrought non-alloy nickel, other unwrought non-alloyed nickel, and unwrought nickel alloys) in September 2023, of which the clearance volume was 2,411 mt, down 54.63% MoM and 82.21% YoY. Among them, other unwrought non-alloyed nickel accounted for 66.04% or 4,135 mt, down 51.61% YoY. In addition, the import volume of non-alloyed nickel powder and flake powder (HS code 75040010) in September 2023 was 516 mt, down 19.72% MoM, and down 83.46% YoY. As for nickel briquette, the imports in September 2023 were 955 mt, up 29.03% MoM and down 72% YoY. Looking at the import data of refined nickel by country, biggest import sources were Russia (3,061 mt), Australia (895 mt), and Japan (738 mt).

During September, both the import volume and customs clearance volume of refined nickel experienced a decline. Specifically, according to SMM research, the overall domestic spot market demand for refined nickel improved in September 2023. However, downstream demand mainly focused on Jinchuan nickel plates and other domestic electrowinning nickel brands. As the current downstream demand for refined nickel is mostly accounted for by alloys, the downstream demand for Jinchuan nickel continued to grow. Additionally, the downstream market for Norilsk nickel rivets is concentrated in mid-to-low-end steel mills and the casting industry, which overlaps with the newly added domestic electroplated nickel market. Moreover, with the continuous significant discount of domestic electrowinning nickel compared to nickel plates, the competitiveness of Norilsk nickel has weakened, leading to a sharp decrease in import orders. In conclusion, due to the persistent sluggish domestic demand and the increasing substitution of imported nickel by domestic electrowinning nickel, it is expected that the customs clearance volume of refined nickel will continue to decline in October.