[agency Review] Weekly report of the non-ferrous metals industry: long-term shortage of lithium resources continues to recommend aluminum price stabilization and focus on left layout opportunities

Investment strategy: (1) basic metals: electrolytic aluminum prices gradually stabilized. In the short term, with the relief of real estate policy and the gradual recovery of power cuts in downstream aluminum processing plants, the demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to hit bottom first. Electrolytic aluminum inventory has stopped accumulating, and began to go to the warehouse slightly, the rebound of the basis verifies that the purchase willingness of the downstream is enhanced, and the demand gradually picks up. In the medium and long term, the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum has entered the stage of "controlling the total amount and optimizing the stock". The ceiling of 45 million tons capacity of electrolytic aluminum industry determines the upper limit of supply; under the background of carbon neutralization, the output growth of electrolytic aluminum industry with high energy consumption and high carbon emissions will continue to be limited. Individual stocks: this week, the base metal plate rebounded, of which the aluminum plate rose 4.02%. We believe that the price of electrolytic aluminum has basically stabilized, and under the background of high shock, the company's profits are expected to be released gradually. In the medium to long term, in the context of carbon neutralization, the logic of electrolytic aluminum supply contraction continues to deduce, superimposed by emerging industries to drive demand growth, the fundamentals will promote the aluminum price center to continue to move up, and the company's performance is expected to maintain stable growth. Keep an eye on Chinalco (601600), Tianshan Aluminum (002532) and Zijin Mining (601899). Secondly, you can pay attention to Shenhuo shares (000933), Yunnan Aluminum shares (000807) and Western Mining (601168). Hong Kong stocks focus on China Hongqiao (1378) and China Nonferrous Mining (1258). (2) New energy metals: the price of lithium concentrate continues to rise sharply. Affected by the reduction in salt lake production in the fourth quarter, there will be no improvement in supply compared with the previous quarter, and the ex-factory price of lithium salt will rise steadily. In the medium term, the upstream lithium mine development cycle is long, and the supply will be difficult to change in the short term. Downstream electric vehicles and energy storage have accounted for more than 60% of lithium demand. With the high growth of downstream demand, lithium prices are expected to rise again under the tight balance between supply and demand. Individual stocks: lithium plate rose slightly this week. We believe that in the short and medium term, the upward trend of lithium prices remains unchanged, the logic of rising prices is still there, and the lithium plate has been fully adjusted, paying attention to the layout opportunities on the left. In the long run, the high growth and scarce strategic resources of the lithium plate will continue to enjoy high profits and high growth. Lithium resource with scarcity attribute and quantity-price double logic is the first choice, followed by processing stock volume logic. Focus on Tianqi Lithium Industry (002466); Zang GE Holdings (000408) and Yongxing Materials (002756), other concerns: lithium: Rongjie (002192), Jiangte Motor (002176); Cobalt and Nickel: Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), Hanrui Cobalt (300618) and Shengtun Mining (600711); Ternary precursors: Greenmei (002340), Zhongwei (300919) and Huayou Cobalt (603799); positive: Dangsheng Technology (300073) and Rongbai Technology (688005); Copper foil: Nord shares (600110) and Jiayuan Technology (688388).

Weekly market review: this week, the non-ferrous metals sector rose 4.02%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.07%. Sub-industries rose, with gold, aluminium and copper rising 5.53 per cent, 4.02 per cent and 3.6 per cent, respectively. Stocks: Guocheng Mining (30.98%), Bowei Alloy (22.27%), Baoti (22.13%), Sanxiang New material (21.74%), Yitong New material (20.07%), Zhongyuan New material (19.49%), Huafeng Aluminum (17.66%), Dragon Magnetic Technology (16.90%), Western Superconductor (16.82%), Wolde (16.00%). Volume price: basic metals: LME, SHFE and Yangtze River are 2.54%, 1.41% and 1.40% respectively; aluminum price: LME, SHFE and Yangtze River are 5.56%, 3.40% and 4.13%, respectively. The global copper inventory is 3.515 million tons, and the global aluminum inventory is 202.45 million tons. Energy metals: lithium price: lithium concentrate 8.1%, electric carbon 1%, Changzhou battery grade lithium carbonate 8.0%; cobalt price: MB standard cobalt 2.0%, spot electric cobalt 0.6%, Wuxi electric cobalt 3.2%; precursor: no change; positive price: lithium cobalt unchanged, NCM523 0.9%; negative price: no change; copper foil price: no change; Electrolyte: electrolyte (iron lithium) 2.6%, electrolyte (ternary) 2.4%; diaphragm unchanged.

Major events: macro: China's M2 money supply in October has an annual rate of 8.7%, the previous value is 8.3%, and is expected to be 8.3%. In the United States, the monthly rate of CPI after October adjustment is 0.9%, the previous value is 0.4%, and the expected annual rate of non-quarterly CPI in October is 6.2%, 5.4%, and 5.8%. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States in the week of November 6 was 267000, compared with a previous value (revised) of 271000 and an expected number of 265000. Industry: the National Development and Reform Commission issued the 14th five-year Plan for promoting the High-quality Development of Resource-based areas, which stipulates that new production capacity of iron and steel, coking, cement clinker, flat glass, electrolytic aluminum, alumina and coal chemical industry is strictly prohibited in key areas.

The company: the board meeting of Hailiang Company examined and approved the motion on investing in the construction of a high-performance copper foil material project with an annual output of 150000 tons, and agreed that the company should invest 8.9 billion yuan to build a high-performance copper foil material project with an annual production capacity of 150000 tons, including 120,000 tons of lithium copper foil per year and 30,000 tons of standard copper foil per year.

Risk tips: basic metals: liquidity tightening, global economic recovery lower than expected; precious metals: liquidity tightening; new energy metals: overvaluation, falling prices; rare earth magnets: prices fall, valuations are high.