The price increase of lithium hexafluorophosphate has reached 500%. The best part of a new round of production expansion

Driven by the frenzied outbreak of downstream demand, electrolyte-related enterprises are accelerating production expansion.

Xixi all over the world comes for profit. Even Shi Da Shenghua, the leader who originally focused on producing electrolyte solvents, could not help but be tempted to go out on his own. On November 7, Shida Wenghua announced that the company's wholly-owned subsidiary, Wintek New Energy, plans to invest 300000 tons / year in the electrolyte project, with a total investment of 1.6 billion yuan. In addition, Dongying Shi Dashenghua, a 51%-owned subsidiary of the company, plans to invest in the construction of 100000 tons / year liquid lithium salt project, with a total investment of 560 million yuan. The two projects are expected to be completed and put into production in February 2023.

Two days before this, three companies issued a rare announcement on the same day to add weight to the electrolyte. Tianzi material announced that its annual output of 150000 tons of lithium materials, and annual production of 20, 000 tons of electrolyte basic materials and 5800 tons of new lithium electrolytes, will be put into production in the fourth quarter of 2021. Huabu Science and Technology plans to invest 300 million yuan to build an "12000 tons lithium battery electrolyte additive project" and 150 million yuan to build a "6000 tons fluoroethylene carbonate (FEC) lithium battery electrolyte additive project". Shenzhen Xinxing plans to invest 700 million yuan to build an annual output of 15000 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate project.

Earlier, Tianci passed a proposal to build a recycling project with an annual capacity of 300000 tons of electrolyte and 100000 tons of iron-lithium batteries on October 25, with a total investment of 1.533 billion yuan. On October 15, Yongtai Technology Bulletin changed the previously disclosed "annual production of 20, 000 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate and 1200 tons of related additives and 50, 000 tons of hydrofluoric acid" to "134000 tons of liquid lithium salt project".

At present, the new energy vehicle power battery industry continues to be hot. According to industry data, the number of power batteries loaded in China in September was 15.7 GWH, up 138.6% from the same period last year. From January to September this year, the total number of power batteries installed in China totaled 92.0 GWH, an increase of 169.1% over the same period last year. Among them, the total loading of ternary batteries was 47.1GWH, accounting for 51.2% of the total loading, an increase of 99.5% over the same period last year; and the total loading of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 44.8 GWH, accounting for 48.7% of the total loading, an increase of 332.0% over the same period last year.

With the strong growth of the demand of downstream battery enterprises, electrolyte enterprises have made a lot of money. According to the three quarterly reports released by major domestic electrolyte-related companies, the net profits of Tianci Materials, Polyfluorodo, Jiangsu Cathay Pacific, New Zebang, Yongtai Technology and Tianji shares in the third quarter of this year are all the same or exceed the net profit of the first half of this year. Among them, the net profit of Tianci material in the third quarter was 771 million yuan, which was the highest net profit of the above-mentioned companies in the same period, while the net profit of multi-fluorine increased by 206times compared with the same period last year, which was the highest net profit growth rate of the above-mentioned companies.

Under the tight situation of supply and demand, the prices of electrolyte-related products continue to rise. According to the data of SMM, on November 5, the average price of electrolyte for lithium iron phosphate reached 113000 yuan / ton, and the average price of electrolyte for ternary power reached 122000 yuan / ton.

Lithium hexafluorophosphate, a necessary lithium salt for electrolytes, has become the prettiest, with an increase of nearly 500% this year. Some analysts believe that in the near future, BYD and other downstream battery manufacturers sent letters to adjust battery prices in November, and the price of hexafluorophosphoric acid may further rise in the short term. The price of raw materials upstream of superimposed lithium hexafluorophosphate is tight, and it is difficult to see the price ceiling for the time being. Tension is expected to persist in the first half of 2022 and will not be alleviated to some extent until the second half of the year.

In fact, in order to ensure the supply of materials and control costs, many battery companies have also hoarded goods on a large scale, among which the rush to buy hexafluorophosphoric acid is the most intense. In May, Tianci announced that Ningde Kaixin, a wholly owned subsidiary of the company, would supply Ningde Times with a corresponding quantity of electrolyte products with an estimated use of 15000 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate. Under this contract alone, the battery capacity corresponding to the electrolyte is 100GWh.

In July this year, Yan'an Bikang announced that the company's holding subsidiary, Jiujiu Technology, will supply not less than 1150 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate to BYD from July to December 2021, not less than 3360 tons in 2022, and no less than 3360 tons in 2023. According to the announcement of Tianji shares, Jiangsu Xintai, a wholly owned subsidiary of the company, will supply not less than 3500 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate to BYD from July 2021 to December 2022 and 36007800 tons in 2023. Dofudo announcement that the company will work with BYD, Funeng Technology and EnchemCo.Ltd. Sales contracts of not less than 6460 tons, 1700 tons and 1800 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate products were signed respectively.

It is worth noting that this round of battery companies' purchases of lithium hexafluorophosphate are all lock-length orders. Zheshang Securities said that the long single model is the future trend of the electrolyte industry chain. In the future, the core competition point of lithium hexafluorophosphate industry chain will be to build cost advantage and customer stickiness. In the long run, once a stable long single cycle is formed, it will help the company to digest the new capacity expansion, while the cost advantage will stabilize the profit growth of the product in the rational price range.

According to the forecast of the industry, the global demand for lithium batteries will reach about 1200 GWH by 2025, and the corresponding electrolyte demand will be about 1.32 million tons. During this period, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) will be 35%. According to the calculation of 0.12t lithium hexafluorophosphate per ton of electrolyte, it is estimated that the global demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate will be about 165000 tons in 2025. From a domestic point of view, it is estimated that the total electrolyte shipment will reach 865000 tons by 2025, with an average annual growth rate of about 31.7%, and its overall market size will reach about 20 billion yuan.